***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.4 14.5 100.0 61.3 48.6 3.6 6.7 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.2 6.9 11.8 89.2 57.7 46.5 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.8 8.7 13.0 88.8 56.2 44.3 3.8 7.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 14.1 16.2 26.1 141.3 75.6 62.7 4.0 7.4 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.0 10.3 16.7 101.7 62.1 49.8 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.5 13.1 19.5 120.2 68.9 57.1 3.9 7.3 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.7 11.8 91.0 58.7 47.1 2.7 5.0 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.7 15.6 16.8 91.3 56.9 48.3 7.6 13.0 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.5 14.9 93.1 57.8 47.0 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.6 8.8 16.0 85.4 54.0 45.4 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.5 17.1 102.0 62.3 50.4 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.0 11.3 16.4 100.7 61.5 51.6 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.6 13.2 17.7 103.9 63.2 53.4 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 4.9 8.2 12.7 63.6 42.5 36.6 5.6 10.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 12.6 19.2 29.6 175.0 82.7 69.6 2.9 6.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.3 11.0 17.2 103.9 63.2 52.4 3.8 7.3 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 7.6 8.2 12.0 95.5 61.2 49.6 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.2 7.5 14.2 72.8 46.9 40.8 5.1 8.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.2 7.3 11.7 83.9 54.9 44.4 3.0 6.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.8 8.6 15.7 77.8 50.8 44.0 4.7 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.0 9.4 14.9 95.5 59.1 47.0 3.9 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.4 12.2 89.5 58.5 47.7 3.6 6.6 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 3.5 7.3 11.4 75.3 50.3 40.8 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.0 7.9 12.6 69.2 45.7 38.8 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.0 11.8 18.3 108.2 64.9 52.3 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.6 10.1 17.7 106.3 64.0 54.7 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.0 15.3 99.9 61.4 49.7 3.1 6.1 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 10.1 12.1 25.4 146.3 76.1 63.9 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 15.3 11.3 14.3 73.3 47.4 41.4 7.3 12.1 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.9 6.8 12.2 91.0 57.7 45.6 2.7 5.3 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------