***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 6.5 15.1 15.5 102.2 63.0 52.7 6.1 10.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.3 10.9 13.1 96.4 61.0 49.6 5.2 8.4 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.8 19.4 15.7 107.7 65.2 54.8 9.1 13.9 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 20.9 22.8 16.3 96.3 60.5 53.5 12.6 18.4 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 16.6 21.2 17.5 109.8 65.8 58.0 8.4 14.0 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 14.6 16.9 18.0 101.9 62.5 56.1 8.0 12.5 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.0 11.0 12.2 89.4 58.0 47.4 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 26.6 31.3 17.9 107.7 64.9 56.2 15.8 23.2 32.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 14.7 20.1 18.4 113.4 67.2 58.7 6.8 12.2 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 17.8 22.0 19.5 111.0 66.1 57.9 9.8 15.3 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 16.7 20.4 16.3 106.8 64.8 56.3 7.5 13.3 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 15.6 18.2 15.5 103.9 63.8 55.0 8.5 13.3 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 18.2 21.2 17.6 104.6 63.9 56.9 10.0 15.5 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 18.8 23.7 22.3 119.3 69.3 57.4 11.4 16.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.1 14.4 86.7 57.7 49.7 7.3 12.2 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 17.0 19.7 16.4 102.3 63.2 56.2 7.3 13.3 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.5 10.1 12.0 91.3 58.8 45.0 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 15.8 20.3 21.2 115.0 67.6 59.3 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 5.6 12.5 14.5 103.6 63.8 51.9 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 14.0 17.8 22.2 116.5 68.1 59.2 7.6 11.9 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 16.0 19.9 17.0 111.3 66.6 56.7 8.4 13.4 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.1 11.7 13.7 98.1 61.4 47.2 4.8 8.4 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 6.6 15.2 16.5 111.9 67.0 54.2 6.6 10.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 18.2 23.0 19.6 114.3 67.5 57.6 10.0 15.4 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 16.9 19.5 17.7 104.5 63.6 53.9 7.6 13.3 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.0 16.7 16.9 106.8 65.1 57.6 7.1 11.5 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.7 17.1 16.3 100.3 62.0 52.2 6.9 12.1 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.4 15.3 15.4 92.2 59.5 52.7 7.2 12.0 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 22.6 28.8 22.1 119.8 69.3 60.5 14.0 20.0 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.3 11.4 13.6 96.7 61.0 51.0 5.1 8.5 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------