***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 9999.0 6.8 6.0 3.1 88.6 85.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 5.1 6.1 5.4 2.5 84.8 81.5 2.3 3.5 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 7.6 8.4 5.4 2.6 84.9 82.1 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 1.8 2.7 3.4 2.7 85.7 83.4 -1.4 -0.2 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 5.2 6.4 3.8 2.7 86.2 83.9 1.5 2.9 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 4.0 4.9 1.5 2.6 84.3 82.1 0.7 2.0 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 5.4 6.4 5.5 2.8 86.8 83.6 2.6 3.6 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 -1.0 -0.3 1.5 2.5 81.7 79.8 -4.8 -3.3 -1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 5.9 7.2 4.3 2.8 88.7 85.9 2.6 3.8 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 5.6 6.4 2.5 2.7 84.2 81.9 2.7 3.8 4.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 5.6 6.5 3.1 2.6 85.5 83.2 2.3 3.6 4.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 4.0 4.6 2.1 2.3 81.3 79.3 0.8 2.1 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 4.8 5.4 1.8 2.1 79.2 77.2 1.8 3.1 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 5.3 5.8 3.7 2.0 79.1 76.0 2.9 3.9 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 5.5 6.4 4.7 3.0 88.0 85.8 2.8 3.8 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 6.0 6.8 2.6 2.3 82.8 80.5 2.8 4.1 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 4.9 5.6 5.0 2.4 83.5 79.9 2.9 3.7 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 3.0 3.6 1.6 2.5 81.6 79.2 0.4 1.5 2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 5.1 6.0 5.3 2.4 84.0 80.9 2.3 3.5 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 0.8 1.3 -0.4 2.7 81.3 79.6 -2.4 -1.2 -0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 5.7 6.8 5.3 2.7 86.4 83.8 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 4.3 5.0 4.9 2.1 81.6 78.1 1.9 3.0 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 4.7 5.4 4.9 2.3 83.1 80.4 1.9 3.0 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 4.9 5.6 3.5 2.3 81.9 79.0 2.3 3.4 4.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 6.0 7.4 4.8 2.9 88.2 85.4 2.4 3.7 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 4.2 4.4 1.2 1.5 70.8 69.6 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 6.6 8.1 5.4 3.0 88.8 86.0 2.7 4.1 5.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 4.2 4.9 3.7 2.6 84.4 82.3 1.1 2.2 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 2.6 3.4 0.9 2.6 82.7 80.2 -0.7 0.6 1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 5.9 7.0 5.6 2.7 85.9 82.7 2.8 4.0 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------