***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 7.2 6.8 0.9 65.1 62.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 6.9 6.7 6.7 1.0 67.7 64.7 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 9.0 8.7 6.5 0.9 66.6 63.8 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 2.2 2.3 4.0 0.4 57.6 57.4 0.3 1.7 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.3 4.1 0.5 59.2 58.4 3.7 4.7 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.2 2.2 0.4 57.9 57.7 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 7.1 6.9 6.7 1.0 67.3 64.2 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.3 -1.1 2.5 0.4 58.4 58.9 -3.0 -1.7 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.0 4.6 0.6 60.4 59.2 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.9 3.1 0.5 58.9 58.7 4.5 5.4 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.8 3.6 0.4 58.6 58.0 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.4 3.3 0.4 57.7 57.9 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.2 2.6 0.2 55.1 55.3 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 7.0 6.7 4.8 0.7 64.3 62.1 5.1 6.0 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.5 4.5 0.3 56.0 55.5 5.2 6.2 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.3 3.2 0.3 56.3 56.2 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 6.9 6.7 6.4 0.9 65.2 62.9 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 4.4 3.9 2.6 0.5 59.3 59.4 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 6.9 6.7 6.6 1.0 67.9 64.8 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.5 57.9 59.1 -0.2 0.9 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 6.7 6.3 5.8 0.7 62.0 60.4 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 6.2 6.0 6.3 0.8 64.6 62.7 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 6.4 6.3 6.3 1.0 67.6 64.5 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 6.3 6.0 4.6 0.7 63.4 61.7 4.4 5.3 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.3 4.9 0.6 60.4 59.6 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.7 2.8 0.1 51.6 53.3 3.6 4.6 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 7.6 7.1 5.9 0.7 62.6 60.8 4.8 6.2 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.6 4.1 0.3 56.3 56.1 3.2 4.3 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 3.6 3.1 2.0 0.6 60.4 60.5 1.2 2.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 7.3 7.2 6.8 1.0 68.0 64.8 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------