***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 6.8 7.5 0.1 51.7 51.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.0 7.5 0.3 56.0 55.0 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.8 7.2 0.2 53.0 52.7 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 0.5 1.9 4.9 -0.1 48.0 48.6 0.8 2.1 3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.4 4.7 4.8 -0.1 47.7 48.6 3.7 4.9 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.8 3.9 3.0 -0.2 46.8 48.6 3.1 4.1 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.6 6.2 7.5 0.3 55.6 54.6 4.8 5.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -3.4 -2.3 3.1 -0.3 45.2 47.4 -3.2 -1.9 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.4 5.5 5.3 -0.2 46.9 48.0 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.3 3.8 -0.2 45.9 47.6 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.4 4.4 -0.1 48.0 49.0 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.8 3.9 4.0 -0.2 45.5 47.6 3.1 4.1 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.7 4.8 3.5 -0.2 46.7 48.4 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.1 5.5 0.1 51.1 51.5 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.3 6.2 5.3 -0.2 46.2 47.3 5.5 6.4 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.4 5.7 4.1 -0.1 47.8 49.0 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.9 6.4 7.3 0.3 55.7 54.9 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 4.2 3.6 3.2 -0.2 46.9 48.3 2.8 3.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.1 7.4 0.3 56.1 55.1 4.7 5.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 1.5 0.8 1.5 -0.2 46.8 48.4 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.3 5.6 6.4 -0.1 48.6 49.3 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.6 7.2 0.3 56.1 55.2 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.7 7.0 0.3 55.9 54.9 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.5 5.2 0.0 50.4 50.9 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.2 5.6 5.7 0.0 49.2 49.6 4.5 5.7 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.4 4.4 3.7 -0.2 45.5 47.4 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.5 6.1 6.7 0.0 50.1 50.4 4.9 6.1 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.6 4.7 5.0 -0.1 47.6 48.4 3.9 4.8 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.7 2.1 2.7 -0.1 47.7 49.0 1.1 2.2 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.8 6.3 7.6 0.3 55.1 54.2 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------