***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 9999.0 7.1 6.6 1.4 83.9 77.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 6.0 6.6 6.4 1.4 84.2 78.0 4.2 4.9 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 8.3 8.8 6.3 1.4 83.6 77.7 6.4 7.2 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 2.4 2.7 3.9 1.1 78.4 74.0 0.5 1.3 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 5.1 5.4 4.0 1.1 78.7 74.3 3.3 4.1 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 4.1 4.3 2.1 1.1 77.0 73.6 2.4 3.1 3.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 6.1 6.7 6.4 1.4 84.3 78.1 4.4 5.1 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 -1.2 -0.9 2.3 1.1 75.9 72.7 -3.1 -2.3 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 5.8 6.1 4.5 1.1 79.7 74.9 4.3 4.9 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 5.8 6.0 3.0 1.1 77.0 73.3 4.3 5.0 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 5.6 5.8 3.5 1.1 78.1 73.9 4.1 4.7 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 4.3 4.4 3.0 1.0 74.8 71.6 2.6 3.3 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 5.0 5.1 2.5 0.8 71.7 69.0 3.5 4.2 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 6.1 6.4 4.5 1.1 78.7 74.1 4.8 5.4 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 6.1 6.3 4.6 1.1 78.5 74.3 4.8 5.3 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 6.2 6.4 3.1 0.9 75.1 71.6 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 6.0 6.5 6.1 1.3 81.8 75.9 4.6 5.2 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 3.5 3.7 2.3 1.1 76.1 72.8 2.2 2.8 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 6.0 6.6 6.3 1.4 84.3 78.3 4.2 5.0 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 1.0 1.2 0.6 1.2 75.6 73.0 -0.5 0.2 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 6.0 6.4 5.6 1.2 80.5 75.2 4.2 4.9 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 5.3 5.7 6.0 1.2 80.8 75.6 3.9 4.5 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 5.6 6.1 6.0 1.3 84.1 78.5 3.8 4.5 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 5.6 6.0 4.3 1.1 79.7 75.1 4.1 4.8 5.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 6.1 6.5 4.9 1.2 81.0 75.6 4.3 5.0 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 4.8 4.7 2.5 0.6 66.1 64.6 3.4 4.1 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 6.8 7.3 5.8 1.3 82.1 76.4 4.7 5.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 4.4 4.6 4.1 1.0 76.8 72.9 3.0 3.6 4.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 2.9 3.2 1.8 1.2 77.1 73.7 1.1 1.9 2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 6.4 7.1 6.6 1.4 84.6 78.4 4.6 5.4 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------