***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 18.4 16.0 1.7 70.7 67.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 18.8 19.0 16.1 1.8 73.0 69.1 16.1 17.3 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 19.0 19.0 16.1 1.5 68.6 65.7 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 10.0 10.7 13.8 1.0 62.0 60.8 7.9 9.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 19.2 18.9 14.2 1.2 63.5 62.0 16.1 17.6 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 16.7 17.4 12.3 1.2 62.9 61.6 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 18.5 18.8 16.1 2.0 74.3 70.1 15.9 17.1 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 6.4 5.9 12.8 1.2 63.0 61.6 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 18.8 18.5 14.8 1.3 64.5 62.7 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 18.9 18.5 13.6 1.3 63.5 61.9 15.7 17.3 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 18.9 18.5 13.8 1.2 63.6 62.1 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 18.0 17.6 13.5 1.3 63.5 62.1 14.7 16.3 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 18.8 18.5 13.1 1.4 64.6 63.1 15.6 17.2 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 18.9 18.6 14.8 1.3 64.4 62.2 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 17.2 17.7 13.9 0.9 60.6 59.7 15.4 16.8 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 19.2 18.9 13.5 1.3 63.3 62.0 16.0 17.6 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 17.7 18.0 15.9 1.9 73.6 69.6 15.4 16.4 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 18.5 18.1 13.1 1.3 63.5 61.8 15.5 16.9 18.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 18.6 18.8 16.2 1.7 71.3 67.7 15.9 17.1 18.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 12.9 12.5 10.8 1.3 64.0 62.4 10.0 11.4 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 19.0 18.9 15.4 1.4 65.9 63.8 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 18.5 18.6 15.9 1.6 70.5 67.0 16.0 17.2 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 18.9 18.9 16.1 1.5 68.7 65.6 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 18.9 18.6 14.7 1.3 64.7 62.6 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 18.7 18.6 14.4 1.4 66.9 64.7 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 18.0 17.7 12.7 1.4 64.6 63.1 14.8 16.4 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 18.9 19.1 15.3 1.7 70.4 67.2 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 17.4 18.0 13.8 0.9 60.5 59.6 15.3 17.0 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 13.1 12.7 12.2 1.3 63.8 62.1 10.1 11.5 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 18.7 18.9 16.2 1.8 72.4 68.7 16.0 17.2 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------