***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 17.4 17.7 0.3 53.8 53.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 17.4 17.3 17.7 0.5 56.5 55.3 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 15.2 17.1 17.8 0.3 53.7 53.2 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.7 9.4 15.8 -0.2 48.0 48.1 8.1 9.5 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 15.2 16.8 16.1 -0.1 48.7 49.0 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 13.9 15.1 14.1 -0.5 44.2 45.1 14.2 15.5 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 17.1 17.0 17.6 0.5 56.6 55.2 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 2.9 4.3 14.6 -0.2 47.6 48.2 3.2 4.5 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.7 16.4 16.6 0.0 49.6 49.9 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 14.8 16.4 15.4 -0.1 48.3 48.9 15.1 16.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 14.9 16.5 15.7 -0.1 48.3 48.7 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 14.1 15.5 15.4 -0.2 47.5 48.1 14.3 15.7 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.2 14.8 -0.3 45.6 46.6 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 15.0 16.7 16.4 0.1 50.8 51.4 15.3 16.7 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 15.5 16.9 16.0 -0.1 48.1 48.0 15.8 17.0 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 15.2 16.6 15.3 -0.3 46.5 47.2 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 14.7 16.7 17.4 0.5 56.5 55.4 14.9 16.2 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 14.4 15.9 14.8 -0.2 48.2 49.0 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 15.0 17.0 17.8 0.4 55.9 55.0 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.4 10.6 12.4 -0.2 47.6 48.5 9.4 10.8 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 14.9 16.7 17.3 0.1 50.8 50.9 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 15.2 17.1 17.4 0.4 54.9 54.6 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 15.2 17.1 17.7 0.3 54.5 54.2 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 14.7 16.4 16.4 0.0 50.5 50.9 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 15.2 16.8 16.2 0.0 50.4 50.3 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.5 15.7 14.5 -0.3 46.5 47.3 14.7 16.0 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.8 16.9 0.2 52.4 52.0 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 15.4 16.7 15.9 -0.2 47.0 47.2 15.7 16.9 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.0 10.5 13.7 -0.2 47.9 48.9 9.3 10.7 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 15.0 17.0 17.8 0.5 56.0 54.9 15.2 16.6 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------