***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 17.1 16.0 0.9 68.1 64.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 17.4 17.5 16.0 1.0 71.2 66.9 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 17.6 17.4 16.0 0.7 64.3 61.9 15.7 16.6 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.4 9.5 13.9 0.4 58.2 57.1 8.0 9.1 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 17.2 17.3 14.3 0.4 57.9 56.8 15.9 16.9 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.1 12.3 0.3 56.3 55.6 14.7 15.7 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 17.3 17.4 16.0 1.1 73.1 68.4 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 4.8 4.8 12.6 0.3 54.9 54.6 3.5 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 16.8 17.0 14.9 0.4 58.3 57.2 15.6 16.5 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 16.8 16.9 13.5 0.3 55.7 55.3 15.6 16.5 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 17.0 17.1 13.9 0.4 57.2 56.4 15.7 16.7 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.1 13.4 0.3 56.1 55.5 14.7 15.8 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 17.1 17.1 13.1 0.4 56.7 56.1 15.7 16.8 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.9 16.8 14.5 0.2 54.5 54.4 15.7 16.6 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 16.7 16.9 14.4 0.4 59.0 57.6 15.7 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 17.4 17.5 13.6 0.4 57.0 56.3 16.0 17.1 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 16.6 16.6 15.7 1.0 71.8 67.2 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.3 12.8 0.2 53.9 54.0 15.2 16.1 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 17.3 17.2 16.0 0.9 68.4 64.9 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 11.2 11.1 10.4 0.2 54.4 54.3 9.9 10.9 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 16.9 17.2 15.5 0.5 60.3 58.8 15.7 16.6 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 17.2 17.1 15.6 0.8 66.5 63.4 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 17.5 17.3 15.9 0.7 63.6 61.3 15.7 16.6 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.8 16.8 14.5 0.3 55.9 55.5 15.5 16.4 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 16.8 17.1 14.5 0.6 62.9 60.8 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 16.3 16.4 12.6 0.4 56.6 56.1 15.1 16.0 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 17.5 17.4 15.3 0.8 67.3 64.1 15.6 16.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 16.9 17.0 14.1 0.4 56.9 55.9 15.7 16.6 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.1 11.8 0.2 54.0 54.0 9.9 10.9 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 17.4 17.4 16.1 1.0 70.5 66.5 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------