***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 8.7 21.0 175.8 84.3 72.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.7 13.1 16.1 140.7 76.0 64.6 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 14.3 19.7 19.6 159.1 81.5 70.3 3.3 6.7 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 19.0 29.6 26.9 199.9 88.4 78.2 5.7 9.7 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 13.2 21.0 25.2 187.8 87.0 76.1 3.3 6.3 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 15.6 23.5 27.5 186.4 86.7 78.6 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 10.0 13.2 16.9 148.2 78.3 65.5 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 23.1 33.2 26.1 176.0 84.9 75.7 6.8 11.9 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 14.1 20.9 23.2 169.0 83.7 71.9 2.9 6.2 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 17.4 25.7 26.0 173.1 84.5 74.2 4.2 8.1 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 16.3 26.2 24.7 188.6 86.6 76.5 3.9 7.7 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 16.7 25.3 24.3 182.7 85.7 76.0 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 17.5 27.9 26.7 192.5 87.4 78.2 5.4 9.4 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 22.8 28.0 22.5 146.9 78.6 67.6 6.4 11.9 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 17.8 30.5 26.6 210.2 88.5 78.3 3.8 7.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 14.9 25.6 25.7 190.5 87.0 77.7 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.4 13.1 13.9 127.1 71.8 60.4 3.2 6.3 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 13.4 18.0 26.1 156.7 81.6 71.4 4.3 7.3 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 12.4 15.5 16.6 141.4 76.3 65.3 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 16.2 21.5 27.3 156.2 81.3 73.5 4.4 8.1 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 15.2 22.2 21.9 169.9 83.5 71.6 3.5 7.0 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 8.6 12.9 14.3 125.6 71.2 60.8 3.9 6.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 14.7 17.6 18.2 145.3 77.5 66.5 4.4 7.8 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 16.3 21.7 22.8 149.2 79.4 68.3 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 16.0 25.3 25.9 187.7 87.4 74.9 4.4 8.0 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 15.4 25.7 28.7 204.9 88.8 81.5 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 14.0 22.9 23.7 179.0 85.8 73.0 3.2 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 14.8 24.0 25.9 195.0 87.1 77.5 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 22.0 29.3 26.1 152.7 80.5 71.1 6.2 11.4 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 10.5 13.9 17.6 151.6 79.2 67.7 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------