***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.6 7.4 65.5 47.4 38.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.2 3.9 7.0 66.9 46.8 38.5 2.1 4.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.1 3.7 7.7 64.6 44.9 37.4 1.9 4.6 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.0 11.7 80.4 54.2 45.3 3.7 7.0 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.0 11.5 79.9 53.6 45.2 2.5 5.2 9.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.8 17.3 93.0 57.2 50.0 3.5 6.2 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 1.8 3.7 7.0 68.0 47.4 39.0 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.3 12.2 15.6 99.4 61.4 52.6 4.0 8.3 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.7 4.8 11.4 81.1 54.6 45.7 2.0 4.0 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.7 14.7 94.0 59.3 50.1 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.2 12.1 86.4 57.0 47.9 1.9 4.1 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.6 12.7 90.2 57.9 50.1 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.5 7.7 14.3 88.3 55.5 48.9 3.8 6.5 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.9 11.3 76.0 50.0 43.0 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.9 11.6 82.1 55.0 44.9 2.9 5.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.4 13.2 87.4 56.3 48.6 3.2 5.4 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.4 4.4 7.1 72.4 49.7 40.7 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.3 16.5 97.2 60.0 51.5 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.2 3.6 7.2 65.5 45.8 37.6 2.0 4.2 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.7 9.6 21.4 114.2 67.0 58.5 3.5 6.0 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.3 4.5 9.2 73.5 51.6 42.7 2.0 4.2 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.8 7.4 74.0 50.8 41.2 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.1 3.4 7.8 65.7 45.4 38.0 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.4 12.0 80.1 52.2 44.8 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.0 5.4 10.3 72.9 50.1 41.2 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.2 13.5 84.3 53.1 46.9 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.5 4.4 9.0 69.1 48.3 39.7 2.4 4.8 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.4 6.8 12.4 85.4 56.6 46.9 2.9 5.6 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.8 18.0 102.4 62.1 53.7 3.4 6.7 11.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.0 3.3 7.0 64.5 45.3 37.6 1.9 3.9 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------