***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 9.5 10.9 75.3 48.9 41.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.5 7.2 11.2 73.9 46.7 39.9 4.1 8.0 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.2 9.9 11.8 84.1 52.7 43.5 5.2 9.1 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 9.5 16.4 13.8 86.3 54.3 42.7 10.2 15.0 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 7.0 13.6 13.2 85.1 53.8 42.6 7.3 12.1 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.8 11.4 18.2 96.4 58.4 45.9 4.8 8.7 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.6 5.5 10.7 70.5 44.9 38.6 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 21.7 20.6 15.7 91.6 55.8 47.5 11.6 18.0 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 5.8 11.4 13.0 86.7 54.4 43.0 5.9 10.2 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.3 16.3 15.4 90.6 55.1 45.4 9.3 14.5 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.1 12.5 13.0 87.7 55.4 44.7 6.2 10.8 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.4 13.5 93.5 57.7 47.1 5.3 9.7 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.5 13.9 15.6 96.9 58.5 46.4 6.3 10.9 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 8.5 15.5 15.5 90.7 54.4 45.5 8.3 13.8 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 4.6 11.1 13.8 92.7 58.5 43.7 4.5 8.6 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 6.7 13.1 14.2 92.2 57.0 44.9 6.9 11.1 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.6 6.0 10.8 71.4 46.3 38.5 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.8 14.5 17.7 94.1 56.2 47.8 8.8 12.9 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.5 9.9 11.5 78.3 49.1 41.2 5.4 10.2 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.0 12.2 20.4 93.0 55.0 49.5 6.6 10.8 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.6 10.2 11.3 83.0 53.5 43.0 5.5 9.2 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.4 7.5 11.3 73.6 46.3 38.5 4.5 8.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 6.2 11.1 12.1 83.5 51.6 42.3 6.1 10.6 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.1 13.4 15.3 92.5 55.7 46.0 7.3 11.6 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.0 10.3 13.7 83.6 53.3 43.9 5.5 9.4 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.4 15.1 97.3 59.3 49.2 6.4 10.6 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.4 9.3 12.9 79.3 50.5 42.3 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 5.4 12.4 14.1 91.1 57.2 43.2 5.6 10.0 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.7 20.1 18.8 95.6 56.8 49.6 11.5 17.3 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.4 7.2 11.3 76.0 47.7 40.7 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------