***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 12.5 8.9 77.5 53.9 41.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.7 8.9 11.1 87.8 57.6 44.3 5.0 7.5 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 6.7 13.9 10.0 86.8 57.3 43.7 7.2 11.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 10.8 20.0 11.4 89.6 59.5 46.9 10.8 16.4 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 7.5 15.9 10.9 88.6 58.9 46.8 7.5 12.5 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 14.9 15.5 14.9 95.7 60.2 49.9 8.0 12.3 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.2 9.0 10.6 83.7 55.1 42.6 4.2 7.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 25.5 27.3 13.2 98.1 62.1 49.8 14.9 21.7 29.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 6.7 14.4 10.3 84.7 56.8 45.4 6.9 11.9 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 8.2 16.6 12.7 91.3 59.5 47.9 7.9 12.9 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.4 15.5 10.5 89.8 59.3 46.7 6.3 11.7 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.4 16.4 10.9 95.8 61.5 48.4 8.5 12.8 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 17.3 17.2 12.3 89.7 58.5 48.4 8.8 13.9 20.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.7 15.8 13.1 90.8 58.2 45.0 8.0 12.9 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.6 13.1 10.8 91.5 60.8 47.1 5.1 9.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.6 11.2 89.9 59.1 47.7 6.4 11.8 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.7 8.5 10.5 82.3 55.2 42.5 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.4 16.0 14.7 93.9 60.3 48.5 8.3 12.7 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.0 8.8 11.0 88.7 58.1 44.1 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.0 15.2 17.0 97.9 61.5 50.8 7.6 11.8 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 6.7 13.8 9.2 83.5 56.6 44.2 7.2 11.7 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.4 9.2 10.7 86.2 55.9 42.8 4.8 7.9 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 5.5 10.7 10.7 87.2 57.3 43.0 5.6 8.9 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 8.0 16.2 12.6 90.7 58.5 45.6 8.4 13.3 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 6.1 12.5 10.6 76.0 53.0 42.3 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.6 11.1 92.1 59.2 48.2 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 5.7 11.3 10.2 75.6 52.6 41.7 5.6 10.5 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.1 13.4 11.2 92.3 60.8 47.8 5.6 9.9 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.0 21.8 15.5 94.3 60.5 49.0 11.8 17.6 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.0 8.7 10.8 87.3 57.3 44.0 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------