***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 33.9 48.1 98.1 55.2 50.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 23.0 32.9 45.4 91.3 48.4 44.4 23.9 33.9 45.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 50.0 47.3 49.1 98.6 55.2 49.9 31.7 43.3 56.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 64.9 71.8 63.9 112.4 65.8 58.8 49.2 60.3 72.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 53.6 58.9 60.9 109.2 63.5 57.2 36.7 48.2 61.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 58.8 58.0 77.8 114.9 68.3 61.2 37.0 46.3 56.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 19.9 30.2 45.3 91.2 48.0 44.3 21.3 31.6 44.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 93.9 93.1 70.7 115.6 68.9 62.3 62.1 75.7 90.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 49.6 51.8 57.9 105.4 60.6 55.2 34.5 44.8 55.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 58.6 65.1 68.8 111.8 65.8 59.6 41.6 52.9 65.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 53.6 60.4 60.3 112.5 66.0 59.3 36.2 47.7 60.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 60.9 60.3 61.4 115.4 68.1 61.3 39.3 48.8 58.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 67.1 66.3 69.0 115.1 68.1 61.2 42.2 53.0 64.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 43.9 61.8 62.5 101.1 56.5 49.9 44.6 56.8 69.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 49.2 60.0 62.8 117.3 68.7 61.1 32.5 44.2 57.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 51.9 59.9 64.3 113.9 67.1 60.4 35.0 46.3 58.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 21.4 29.5 42.3 87.0 44.9 41.7 22.3 33.1 45.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 49.2 54.0 75.0 110.1 64.9 58.5 35.3 44.5 54.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 26.8 38.3 46.3 92.9 49.8 45.3 27.8 38.5 50.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 61.0 60.0 86.2 114.0 68.7 62.2 37.9 47.4 58.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 47.3 48.9 51.5 103.3 59.3 54.1 29.7 41.5 54.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 23.8 33.5 43.7 88.8 46.4 42.1 25.2 35.9 48.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 30.4 42.1 48.8 95.3 51.7 46.4 31.5 41.1 51.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 55.3 55.6 62.8 103.4 58.7 52.8 37.4 48.8 61.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 51.8 53.8 60.5 103.9 59.4 53.9 35.9 46.8 59.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 57.3 58.1 68.3 118.8 70.4 63.8 34.8 44.3 54.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 48.7 46.9 55.8 99.6 55.9 50.9 30.0 42.2 56.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 50.0 57.0 63.6 114.8 67.3 60.1 36.2 45.7 55.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 73.7 80.6 78.5 110.8 65.7 58.8 55.9 67.9 80.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 20.8 32.1 46.7 93.9 50.8 46.2 21.9 31.6 42.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------