***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 5.1 6.3 -0.8 38.2 42.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.4 5.1 6.1 -0.7 38.6 43.5 4.7 5.9 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.1 6.0 -0.7 37.9 42.7 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 1.1 1.6 4.4 -0.7 37.8 42.3 1.3 2.5 3.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.6 4.2 4.4 -0.7 37.5 41.9 3.9 5.0 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.1 3.6 2.7 -0.6 39.7 43.4 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.8 5.4 6.2 -0.7 38.8 43.6 5.0 6.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -1.1 -2.4 2.9 -0.7 37.7 42.5 -2.7 -1.6 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.5 5.0 4.8 -0.7 37.7 42.0 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.6 5.0 3.5 -0.7 37.9 42.6 4.7 5.8 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.3 4.9 4.1 -0.7 37.7 42.0 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.9 3.4 3.7 -0.7 37.7 42.0 3.1 4.2 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.0 4.5 3.2 -0.7 38.7 42.8 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.0 5.4 4.8 -0.7 38.2 43.6 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.9 5.9 4.9 -0.7 38.1 42.3 5.6 6.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.7 5.4 3.8 -0.6 38.9 42.8 5.0 6.1 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.8 5.5 6.0 -0.7 38.3 43.2 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.7 3.2 2.9 -0.7 38.4 43.6 2.8 3.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.7 5.2 6.1 -0.7 38.1 43.2 4.9 5.9 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 1.5 0.4 1.2 -0.7 38.4 44.4 0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.1 5.6 -0.8 37.9 42.4 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.2 4.8 5.9 -0.8 37.9 43.2 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.4 4.9 5.8 -0.7 38.0 43.2 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.4 4.9 4.6 -0.7 38.2 43.2 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.6 5.1 5.0 -0.8 37.8 42.7 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.6 4.2 3.3 -0.7 38.1 42.7 3.8 4.9 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.0 5.5 5.7 -0.8 38.2 42.9 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.8 4.3 4.7 -0.7 39.0 42.9 3.9 4.9 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.3 1.8 2.3 -0.8 37.7 43.6 1.5 2.6 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.0 5.5 6.2 -0.7 38.4 43.3 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------