***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9999.0 5.5 4.8 -9.0 0.1 1.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 11.9 4.2 4.3 -9.3 0.1 1.8 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 99 1 0 100 12.1 4.9 4.7 -9.3 0.1 2.2 14.1 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 3.9 -3.7 2.0 -9.6 0.1 0.9 5.9 7.4 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 99 1 0 100 11.9 5.1 3.5 -9.1 0.3 2.5 14.0 15.7 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 97 3 0 100 11.1 7.9 3.9 -6.7 3.4 7.5 13.0 14.6 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 11.8 4.8 4.5 -9.0 0.1 1.7 13.6 15.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 0.5 -3.0 3.4 -7.6 2.3 6.6 2.2 3.7 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 11.8 5.3 4.4 -9.2 0.3 2.8 13.8 15.5 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 11.9 7.1 3.5 -8.5 1.2 4.7 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 11.8 6.1 3.8 -8.8 0.7 3.5 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 11.1 6.7 4.2 -7.6 2.0 6.0 13.1 14.8 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 12.1 8.5 5.0 -6.8 2.9 7.3 14.1 15.8 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 98 2 0 100 12.2 5.3 3.7 -9.7 0.2 3.0 14.2 15.9 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 11.5 3.4 3.1 -10.0 0.0 0.3 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 99 1 0 100 12.2 7.3 4.1 -8.1 1.2 4.3 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 11.2 4.3 3.9 -9.3 0.1 1.6 12.8 14.2 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 97 3 0 100 11.5 7.0 3.0 -8.3 1.6 5.5 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 11.9 4.1 4.4 -9.4 0.1 2.0 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 6.6 3.8 2.5 -6.3 4.5 9.5 8.4 10.0 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 99 1 0 100 12.0 4.9 4.6 -9.4 0.2 2.2 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 11.8 3.8 3.9 -9.6 0.0 1.7 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 12.3 5.0 4.4 -9.5 0.1 2.3 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 12.1 6.1 3.9 -9.2 0.5 3.6 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 11.9 5.0 3.5 -9.2 0.1 1.1 13.7 15.2 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 90 10 0 100 12.1 9.8 5.3 -5.5 5.8 10.4 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 12.0 5.1 4.4 -8.8 0.1 1.6 13.9 15.4 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 11.6 4.6 2.7 -9.7 0.2 1.1 13.6 15.2 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 97 3 0 100 6.3 2.2 2.7 -7.7 2.2 6.6 8.3 10.1 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 99 1 0 100 11.8 4.5 4.6 -9.1 0.1 1.9 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------