***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 16.0 13.5 -1.4 32.3 38.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 15.6 16.0 13.2 -1.5 31.4 37.5 16.2 17.4 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 15.8 16.2 13.6 -1.5 32.4 38.8 16.3 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 7.5 7.6 11.6 -1.9 28.4 36.7 8.1 9.8 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 15.9 16.2 12.1 -1.6 31.5 39.1 16.4 17.9 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.0 10.6 -1.2 35.8 42.0 14.7 16.4 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 15.5 15.9 13.2 -1.4 31.8 37.7 16.0 17.2 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.3 3.7 11.0 -1.4 33.9 40.1 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 15.6 16.1 12.7 -1.5 33.2 40.1 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 15.7 16.2 11.7 -1.4 34.5 40.8 16.0 17.5 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 15.7 16.0 12.0 -1.5 33.2 40.6 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 14.6 15.0 11.7 -1.5 33.0 39.9 15.0 16.5 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 15.6 16.0 11.3 -1.3 34.4 40.7 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 15.9 16.4 12.7 -1.3 35.3 40.7 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 15.2 15.1 11.5 -2.1 25.9 34.7 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 16.0 16.3 11.6 -1.4 33.3 40.6 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 15.0 15.3 13.0 -1.5 30.8 36.5 15.5 16.6 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 15.4 16.0 11.3 -1.3 36.4 41.6 15.7 17.2 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 15.4 15.9 13.4 -1.5 31.8 37.9 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 10.4 8.9 -1.3 35.9 40.2 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 15.8 16.2 13.2 -1.5 32.4 39.2 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 15.6 15.9 13.1 -1.6 30.9 36.6 16.1 17.3 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 15.8 16.3 13.5 -1.4 32.9 39.0 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 15.7 16.3 12.6 -1.3 35.2 40.9 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 15.5 15.9 12.0 -1.6 30.7 37.6 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 14.6 15.0 10.9 -1.3 33.4 39.2 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 15.6 16.2 12.7 -1.5 32.4 38.5 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 15.2 15.3 11.8 -1.9 28.6 37.1 15.7 17.4 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.7 10.3 -1.2 37.2 41.6 10.3 11.8 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 15.5 16.0 13.4 -1.5 31.8 38.0 16.1 17.3 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------