***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 14.7 14.7 -1.7 29.8 34.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 14.2 14.5 14.5 -1.7 29.8 34.4 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 14.6 14.8 14.9 -1.7 30.3 34.8 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.5 7.5 13.1 -1.9 29.1 33.9 7.9 9.6 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 15.2 15.3 13.4 -1.9 29.7 34.4 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 14.4 14.5 11.6 -1.8 30.2 34.6 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 14.3 14.5 14.4 -1.7 29.8 34.4 14.8 16.1 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.0 12.0 -1.9 30.0 34.8 3.3 4.9 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.8 14.8 13.9 -1.9 29.9 34.6 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 14.8 14.9 12.8 -1.9 30.0 34.8 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 15.1 15.2 13.1 -1.8 30.0 34.8 15.5 17.1 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.3 12.8 -1.9 30.1 34.7 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 15.3 15.4 12.3 -1.8 30.2 34.6 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 14.2 14.5 13.8 -1.8 30.9 35.2 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 15.5 15.4 13.3 -1.9 28.7 33.3 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 15.6 15.6 12.8 -1.8 30.1 34.7 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 13.7 13.9 14.2 -1.6 29.9 34.5 14.2 15.5 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 14.1 14.3 12.2 -2.0 30.3 35.0 14.5 16.1 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 14.1 14.3 14.7 -1.7 30.0 34.5 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 9.0 9.4 9.9 -2.0 30.1 34.8 9.7 11.2 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 14.9 14.9 14.4 -1.8 29.9 34.6 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 14.1 14.4 14.4 -1.7 29.8 34.3 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 14.4 14.6 14.8 -1.7 30.3 34.8 14.8 16.3 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 14.3 14.5 13.7 -1.8 30.7 35.2 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 14.9 15.0 13.3 -1.8 29.3 34.0 15.3 16.7 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 14.7 14.8 12.0 -1.8 29.6 33.9 15.1 16.6 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 14.7 14.9 13.9 -1.8 29.6 34.2 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 15.5 15.4 13.3 -1.9 29.4 34.0 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 8.9 9.1 11.2 -2.0 30.4 35.0 9.4 10.9 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 14.2 14.5 14.7 -1.7 29.8 34.4 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------