***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 16.9 15.8 -0.9 39.1 42.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 15.3 16.3 15.6 -0.9 38.3 42.3 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 15.5 16.5 15.9 -0.9 39.1 42.9 15.9 17.4 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 8.2 9.2 14.5 -1.0 38.4 42.3 8.7 10.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 15.8 16.6 14.6 -0.9 38.9 42.9 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 14.3 15.3 12.9 -0.9 39.7 43.9 14.8 16.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 15.2 16.1 15.5 -0.9 38.5 42.5 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.1 13.2 -0.9 39.2 43.7 3.6 5.0 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 15.3 16.1 15.0 -0.9 38.9 43.0 15.6 17.0 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 15.4 16.2 13.9 -0.9 39.0 43.4 15.7 17.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 15.4 16.3 14.3 -0.9 39.3 43.5 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 14.5 15.4 14.0 -0.9 39.1 43.6 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 15.3 16.3 13.5 -0.9 38.9 43.6 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 15.4 16.2 14.7 -1.0 38.3 42.7 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 15.8 16.6 14.7 -1.0 38.1 41.8 16.2 17.4 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 15.7 16.6 14.0 -0.9 39.1 43.4 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 14.6 15.6 15.3 -1.0 37.6 41.9 15.3 16.6 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.7 13.2 -1.0 38.5 43.2 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 15.2 16.1 15.7 -0.9 38.3 42.3 15.6 17.0 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 9.5 10.4 11.0 -1.0 38.7 43.6 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 15.4 16.3 15.6 -0.9 39.0 42.9 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 15.3 16.2 15.4 -1.0 37.4 41.7 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 15.4 16.4 15.7 -1.0 38.4 42.5 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 15.1 16.0 14.7 -1.0 38.7 43.0 15.5 16.9 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 15.6 16.3 14.5 -1.0 38.4 42.5 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 14.6 15.6 13.3 -0.9 38.3 43.2 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 15.3 16.2 15.1 -0.9 38.8 42.8 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 15.7 16.5 14.7 -1.0 38.6 42.4 16.1 17.3 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 9.5 10.4 12.2 -1.0 38.4 43.3 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 15.1 16.1 15.7 -0.9 38.7 42.5 15.6 17.1 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------