***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 9999.0 12.5 12.2 -3.3 4.8 10.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 94 6 0 100 14.6 12.9 11.9 -3.3 4.1 10.1 15.6 16.5 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 14.9 13.2 12.3 -3.3 4.5 10.5 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 7.0 5.0 10.3 -3.6 3.6 8.3 8.2 9.2 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 14.9 13.2 10.9 -3.4 4.8 10.3 16.0 17.1 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 13.9 12.8 9.8 -2.7 10.0 15.8 14.8 15.9 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 14.5 13.0 11.9 -3.2 4.7 10.8 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 2.7 1.5 9.9 -3.0 7.9 14.1 3.7 4.6 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 14.7 13.1 11.5 -3.4 5.1 10.7 15.7 16.6 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 90 10 0 100 14.7 13.4 10.5 -3.2 6.5 12.4 15.7 16.7 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 90 10 0 100 14.8 13.1 10.8 -3.2 5.6 11.3 15.8 16.9 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 13.9 12.5 10.7 -3.0 7.5 13.5 14.9 15.9 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 15.0 13.9 10.5 -2.7 9.3 15.4 15.9 16.9 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 92 8 0 100 14.8 13.2 11.2 -3.4 4.8 11.0 15.8 16.7 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 14.8 13.0 10.7 -3.7 3.0 7.0 15.8 16.6 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 89 11 0 100 15.1 13.7 10.6 -3.1 6.8 12.5 16.2 17.2 18.2 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 13.9 12.3 11.6 -3.4 4.1 9.9 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 88 12 0 100 14.4 13.1 9.9 -3.1 7.5 13.7 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 93 7 0 100 14.4 12.7 12.0 -3.4 4.0 10.0 15.5 16.4 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 9.2 8.3 8.1 -2.6 11.2 17.6 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 90 10 0 100 14.8 13.1 12.0 -3.4 4.6 10.2 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 14.5 12.8 11.7 -3.5 3.8 9.3 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 93 7 0 100 14.8 13.1 12.1 -3.4 4.2 10.2 15.8 16.7 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 91 9 0 100 14.6 13.1 11.2 -3.3 5.5 11.6 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 94 6 0 100 14.8 13.2 10.8 -3.4 4.4 9.7 15.8 16.6 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 14.4 13.5 10.4 -2.4 11.5 17.0 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 91 9 0 100 14.7 13.2 11.5 -3.2 5.1 11.0 15.7 16.7 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 14.8 13.1 10.6 -3.6 3.8 8.4 15.9 16.8 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 9.2 8.0 9.1 -3.0 8.8 15.2 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 91 9 0 100 14.5 12.8 12.1 -3.3 4.4 10.4 15.5 16.4 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------