***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9999.0 26.1 26.2 208.9 88.3 82.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 12.2 18.8 22.9 190.7 85.8 80.7 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 16.3 27.5 26.3 207.1 88.7 81.9 3.5 7.1 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 20.8 33.8 30.6 215.4 89.5 83.7 5.7 10.0 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 13.5 21.9 27.5 195.9 87.7 81.2 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 18.4 28.5 30.0 199.9 89.4 83.3 5.5 9.2 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 11.9 17.1 21.3 180.7 84.0 79.1 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 24.1 36.2 28.2 181.7 86.2 80.2 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 14.3 24.9 27.8 201.9 88.9 82.4 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 17.2 27.1 28.1 182.6 86.4 79.8 4.0 7.9 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 16.2 26.0 27.3 195.7 87.7 81.5 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 17.3 28.6 28.2 201.3 89.0 83.1 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 20.8 33.4 29.8 201.4 89.9 83.6 5.9 10.1 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 22.2 32.9 27.7 179.0 84.8 77.3 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 22.0 45.7 34.1 253.7 92.7 87.4 3.7 8.0 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 17.1 28.8 28.9 201.3 89.0 82.8 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 13.6 18.6 20.5 173.3 82.7 77.6 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 14.0 20.1 28.5 173.6 84.8 77.8 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 14.2 23.7 24.1 195.0 86.9 81.2 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 18.2 26.0 31.2 177.9 85.6 79.6 4.9 8.8 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 15.6 27.4 27.5 210.8 89.5 82.7 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 13.7 18.6 21.8 175.4 83.3 78.0 4.1 7.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 15.9 25.2 25.4 193.9 87.4 80.5 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 17.6 27.9 27.8 185.8 86.3 78.8 4.3 8.3 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 16.2 25.3 27.8 192.8 86.6 80.0 4.4 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 17.2 36.5 31.7 221.4 93.0 86.8 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 15.1 23.8 26.4 190.5 85.8 79.9 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 17.3 32.6 32.1 233.0 90.9 85.5 3.0 6.5 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 23.4 34.0 29.1 173.3 84.8 77.6 6.7 12.0 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 12.6 19.4 23.8 196.1 86.7 81.3 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------