***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 9.5 16.8 140.6 75.5 62.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 10.6 12.3 17.1 143.8 76.3 64.7 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 11.2 12.4 16.6 132.0 73.2 61.7 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 12.9 15.0 20.3 147.2 77.1 65.7 4.4 7.3 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 11.2 12.7 19.3 140.3 75.5 64.3 3.0 5.6 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 9.7 9.6 21.8 120.6 69.7 61.6 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 9.3 11.3 17.2 148.6 77.5 65.1 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 16.2 17.9 19.3 135.9 74.3 64.2 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 9.0 9.9 18.4 132.8 73.5 62.5 2.4 4.6 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 10.3 11.0 19.3 131.2 73.0 62.6 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 9.3 10.1 17.7 136.7 74.5 63.2 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 9.9 11.4 17.4 138.5 75.0 63.9 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 9.9 10.5 20.3 132.1 73.3 63.2 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 10.3 10.5 20.2 123.4 70.6 61.5 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 8.9 11.4 20.4 154.9 78.6 67.9 2.5 4.6 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 9.0 9.9 19.2 133.9 73.8 63.6 3.2 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 9.3 10.6 16.9 145.0 76.6 64.1 2.6 4.7 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 5.4 7.9 21.2 125.1 71.1 61.6 2.4 4.3 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 9.2 10.3 16.9 136.7 74.4 63.4 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 10.1 11.1 25.3 133.3 73.5 64.9 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 9.1 9.9 16.7 129.0 72.4 60.6 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 9.8 11.0 17.0 139.8 75.3 63.6 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.9 8.6 17.2 126.4 71.6 61.3 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.8 10.1 19.3 124.7 71.0 60.9 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 11.1 12.3 19.9 138.3 74.9 63.1 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 9.8 11.4 19.9 140.1 75.4 65.4 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 9.5 11.1 19.1 142.4 75.9 63.6 2.7 5.0 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 8.7 10.5 20.2 147.7 77.0 66.1 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 12.8 13.4 22.4 125.0 71.0 61.9 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 8.5 9.7 16.9 142.3 76.0 64.3 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------