***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 61.5 71.6 149.3 84.0 74.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 53.6 64.0 68.1 143.1 81.0 73.3 24.6 35.1 47.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 66.8 82.6 71.8 147.3 84.0 75.3 32.4 44.6 58.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 80.5 96.4 83.0 148.6 85.2 76.4 49.8 61.5 74.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 67.9 84.5 79.0 142.5 83.7 75.1 36.4 48.4 62.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 62.9 72.3 94.0 137.0 82.1 76.6 37.9 47.3 57.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 52.7 63.5 66.6 141.5 80.4 72.1 20.9 31.8 45.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 97.4 110.4 82.3 137.8 82.8 76.1 66.2 78.6 91.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 63.1 78.1 78.0 143.4 84.3 75.9 33.5 44.5 56.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 72.9 85.8 82.7 137.3 82.7 75.5 41.8 53.6 66.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 66.9 80.0 75.9 141.1 83.0 75.5 37.0 48.1 60.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 65.5 77.3 75.7 144.2 84.5 77.4 39.6 49.3 59.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 72.8 85.7 85.8 141.5 84.0 77.4 42.8 53.9 66.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 76.5 89.8 83.6 136.9 81.8 74.4 44.6 57.0 70.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 67.8 91.1 83.8 161.7 87.8 80.0 32.6 44.9 58.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 68.0 82.1 81.0 141.9 83.7 76.6 36.4 47.9 60.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 54.1 60.9 65.0 137.1 77.9 70.8 21.6 32.8 46.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 63.4 73.8 88.4 134.1 82.0 74.8 37.1 47.2 58.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 60.7 74.7 69.6 143.5 81.5 74.0 24.1 36.8 52.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 65.4 76.2 99.6 134.4 82.3 75.5 38.3 48.6 59.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 62.9 80.5 73.6 146.1 83.8 75.1 28.8 41.2 55.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 57.1 63.1 67.1 136.7 77.9 71.5 25.9 36.9 49.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 59.8 69.7 72.5 142.1 82.0 74.4 31.6 41.8 53.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 71.1 84.4 81.6 138.4 82.6 74.9 38.4 50.6 64.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 67.2 82.0 80.9 142.6 82.5 73.0 34.8 47.1 60.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 63.1 77.0 85.1 148.8 85.7 80.5 36.5 46.2 57.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 64.9 82.1 77.4 143.9 82.4 73.3 29.2 42.3 57.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 64.3 80.4 83.4 152.8 86.1 78.4 35.0 45.6 57.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 88.5 101.3 91.6 133.2 81.6 74.4 57.1 69.8 83.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 50.6 63.7 69.2 145.5 82.3 74.1 21.3 31.6 44.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------