***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.3 5.6 5.3 0.2 52.4 51.5 4.5 5.5 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.5 5.2 0.3 54.6 53.3 4.3 5.3 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 6.6 7.9 5.3 0.1 52.0 51.4 6.7 7.8 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 0.4 1.5 2.3 -0.3 45.5 46.3 0.6 1.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 4.4 3.4 2.8 -0.4 43.4 45.0 2.7 3.9 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 1.6 2.2 -0.1 -0.8 38.7 41.8 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.3 5.7 5.2 0.3 55.3 53.5 4.5 5.4 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -3.3 -2.8 -0.3 -1.0 35.9 40.0 -3.0 -1.9 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.8 4.7 2.8 -0.4 43.2 45.2 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.7 4.4 0.7 -0.8 37.8 41.2 4.1 5.1 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.1 1.9 -0.7 39.0 41.6 3.7 4.7 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 1.9 2.6 0.9 -0.7 39.1 42.3 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.2 0.6 -0.9 36.0 39.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.6 5.3 2.7 -0.5 42.6 44.8 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.2 3.6 -0.1 48.9 48.6 4.2 5.3 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.0 4.7 1.3 -0.7 39.5 42.0 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.5 5.7 5.0 0.3 54.2 52.9 4.6 5.5 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 1.5 2.1 0.3 -0.7 39.4 42.2 1.8 2.6 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.0 5.4 5.1 0.2 54.0 53.0 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 -1.0 -0.5 -1.9 -1.0 36.1 40.5 -0.7 0.2 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 5.4 4.7 4.3 -0.2 46.8 47.7 3.8 4.9 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.7 4.9 4.9 0.1 52.5 52.1 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.7 4.9 4.8 0.1 52.0 51.8 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.8 4.7 2.6 -0.4 43.6 45.3 4.1 5.0 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.8 5.0 4.1 -0.1 49.2 49.3 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.8 3.3 0.1 -0.8 37.5 41.2 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.0 4.8 0.1 51.1 50.5 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.7 2.9 2.5 -0.3 45.1 45.8 2.0 3.2 4.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 0.9 1.6 -0.7 -1.0 36.3 40.3 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.5 5.9 5.3 0.3 54.6 53.2 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------