***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.4 5.7 6.1 -0.1 48.5 49.7 4.7 5.8 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.0 5.5 6.0 0.1 50.9 50.5 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.1 7.3 6.1 -0.1 47.9 48.9 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 2.1 1.3 3.3 -0.2 46.5 48.5 0.2 1.6 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.2 3.3 -0.5 42.0 45.3 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.4 1.2 -0.4 43.5 46.3 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.3 5.9 6.1 0.1 52.4 51.9 4.6 5.7 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -1.3 -2.6 1.0 -0.6 40.0 44.7 -3.1 -1.9 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.7 4.7 3.5 -0.5 40.7 44.4 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.8 4.8 1.8 -0.6 39.7 44.2 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.7 2.6 -0.5 41.4 45.4 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.4 3.3 1.7 -0.6 39.4 43.9 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.4 4.1 1.1 -0.8 36.9 41.4 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.7 5.3 3.3 -0.7 38.9 42.8 5.0 5.9 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.0 4.5 -0.1 48.3 49.7 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.3 2.0 -0.5 40.9 44.6 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.5 5.9 6.0 0.2 52.5 51.8 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.3 2.8 1.1 -0.7 38.8 43.6 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.1 5.4 5.9 0.0 49.6 49.7 4.4 5.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -0.4 0.1 -1.1 -0.8 38.4 43.8 -0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.0 5.0 -0.4 43.5 46.1 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.0 5.1 5.7 0.1 51.1 50.8 4.2 5.1 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.9 5.0 5.6 -0.2 47.2 48.4 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.1 4.7 3.2 -0.5 40.8 44.3 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.4 4.7 -0.2 46.7 48.7 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.5 4.0 1.0 -0.7 38.1 42.5 3.7 4.7 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.3 5.7 5.5 -0.2 47.0 48.7 4.6 6.0 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.1 3.5 -0.2 45.7 47.7 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.8 1.5 0.5 -0.7 39.4 44.5 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.4 5.9 6.1 0.0 50.6 50.5 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------