***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.2 7.7 0.6 59.4 57.3 5.5 6.6 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 6.2 6.7 7.6 0.8 62.7 60.5 4.7 5.9 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.3 8.5 7.6 0.5 59.0 57.4 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 2.8 2.7 4.6 0.2 52.8 52.5 1.3 2.5 3.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.0 4.5 0.0 49.6 50.2 3.9 5.0 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.2 2.5 0.0 50.0 50.6 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.4 6.9 7.6 0.9 63.7 61.0 5.0 6.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -1.2 -1.7 2.3 -0.1 48.2 49.4 -2.7 -1.6 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.0 5.8 4.8 0.0 50.3 50.7 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 6.1 5.7 3.2 -0.1 49.2 50.0 4.7 5.8 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.5 3.8 -0.1 48.7 49.6 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.1 3.0 -0.1 48.3 49.3 3.1 4.2 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.0 2.5 -0.1 47.7 48.4 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.3 4.8 0.2 52.6 52.7 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 6.8 6.8 5.8 0.3 55.9 54.7 5.6 6.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.4 6.0 3.3 -0.1 49.1 49.8 5.0 6.1 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.5 7.0 7.4 0.8 63.1 60.8 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.2 3.8 2.5 0.0 50.0 50.6 2.8 3.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.6 7.5 0.8 62.2 60.2 4.9 5.9 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 1.5 1.0 0.3 -0.1 48.6 49.9 0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 6.1 6.0 6.4 0.2 53.8 53.3 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 5.8 6.2 7.1 0.8 62.4 60.5 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.2 7.2 0.6 60.7 59.1 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.7 4.6 0.2 52.8 52.7 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 6.3 6.3 6.1 0.4 55.7 54.6 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.9 2.4 0.0 50.6 50.8 3.8 4.9 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.7 6.9 7.0 0.5 58.0 56.1 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 5.1 5.0 4.8 0.2 52.9 52.4 3.9 4.9 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.0 2.6 1.9 0.0 49.8 50.7 1.5 2.6 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.9 7.7 0.8 62.2 59.9 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------