***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.5 5.6 0.0 50.2 50.1 4.7 5.5 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.3 5.5 0.2 55.7 53.7 4.3 5.1 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.3 5.7 0.0 50.9 50.3 6.6 7.3 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.8 1.2 2.8 -0.2 43.4 44.8 0.7 1.5 2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.3 3.7 3.0 -0.4 38.5 40.7 3.4 4.2 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.5 2.9 0.7 -0.4 39.4 42.0 2.6 3.3 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.5 5.6 0.3 57.1 54.9 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -3.2 -2.8 0.5 -0.6 35.6 39.1 -2.9 -2.1 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.7 3.3 -0.3 42.2 43.8 4.4 5.0 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.3 4.6 1.4 -0.5 36.5 39.4 4.4 5.1 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.0 4.4 2.4 -0.4 39.0 41.2 4.2 4.8 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.5 2.9 1.4 -0.5 36.9 39.8 2.7 3.4 4.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.5 3.7 1.1 -0.6 33.0 36.6 3.7 4.3 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.2 3.1 -0.3 42.3 44.0 4.9 5.5 6.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.5 4.2 0.0 51.0 50.7 4.9 5.5 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.5 4.9 1.8 -0.5 37.0 39.6 4.7 5.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.6 5.4 0.3 56.8 54.2 4.7 5.4 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 2.2 2.5 0.8 -0.5 38.2 40.9 2.3 2.9 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.3 5.5 0.2 55.4 53.6 4.4 5.1 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -0.5 -0.3 -1.3 -0.7 34.3 38.7 -0.3 0.3 0.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.7 4.7 -0.2 44.2 45.5 4.3 5.0 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.9 5.3 0.2 56.4 54.1 4.0 4.6 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.8 5.2 0.1 53.9 52.7 4.0 4.7 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.1 4.6 3.0 -0.2 43.2 44.5 4.2 4.8 5.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.9 4.3 -0.3 43.5 45.3 4.4 5.1 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.4 3.6 0.7 -0.6 34.2 37.7 3.5 4.2 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.5 5.0 -0.1 46.3 47.2 4.8 5.6 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 3.9 3.5 3.1 -0.2 44.6 45.5 3.1 3.7 4.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 1.0 1.4 0.0 -0.5 37.3 40.6 1.2 2.0 2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.7 5.7 0.2 55.5 53.8 4.8 5.5 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------