***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.5 14.5 13.0 -0.3 45.9 45.4 13.3 14.9 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.3 13.4 0.1 51.6 50.5 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.3 14.9 12.8 -0.7 41.4 41.9 14.1 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.5 6.3 9.0 -1.0 37.3 38.5 5.9 7.4 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 13.0 13.5 10.1 -1.7 29.0 31.7 14.0 15.7 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 12.1 12.1 7.6 -2.2 25.1 29.1 13.0 14.6 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.0 13.2 0.1 50.8 49.8 13.6 15.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 1.1 1.1 7.2 -2.7 22.4 26.5 2.2 3.7 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 13.0 13.5 11.2 -1.6 30.3 32.8 13.8 15.5 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 12.8 12.9 8.5 -2.6 23.8 27.4 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 12.7 13.1 10.1 -2.1 26.3 29.5 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 11.9 12.2 8.6 -2.2 25.1 29.0 13.1 14.8 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 12.9 13.1 9.5 -2.2 24.4 28.8 14.1 15.8 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 13.4 13.9 10.9 -1.9 29.4 31.7 14.2 15.9 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 15.4 14.7 12.2 -0.1 48.3 48.1 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 13.3 13.7 9.6 -2.0 27.3 30.7 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.3 13.0 0.1 50.9 50.2 12.8 14.2 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 12.3 12.3 7.6 -2.7 22.6 26.6 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.2 13.3 -0.1 49.1 48.4 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 7.2 7.0 5.3 -2.8 20.8 25.9 8.4 10.0 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 13.3 13.9 12.1 -1.4 32.9 34.9 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.7 14.7 12.7 -0.4 44.4 44.8 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.2 13.1 -0.4 44.9 44.9 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 13.2 13.5 10.6 -2.0 28.0 30.9 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 13.3 14.1 11.3 -1.0 36.8 38.1 13.7 15.2 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 12.9 13.1 7.9 -1.9 26.6 31.0 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 13.6 14.6 12.2 -0.6 41.0 41.6 13.9 15.4 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 13.3 14.1 10.2 -0.9 38.7 39.9 13.6 15.2 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 7.0 6.9 6.8 -2.8 21.3 25.7 8.3 10.1 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.2 13.4 0.0 50.5 49.4 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------