***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 18.0 18.8 17.9 1.3 65.3 61.7 16.2 17.6 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 18.8 19.1 18.2 1.9 71.5 66.5 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.8 18.6 18.1 1.3 64.5 61.1 15.9 17.4 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 10.5 10.7 15.1 0.6 57.7 55.5 8.7 10.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 17.9 17.8 15.5 0.4 54.3 53.0 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 16.4 16.2 13.2 0.2 52.3 51.0 14.8 16.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 18.5 18.7 18.2 1.9 71.2 66.3 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 5.4 5.0 13.6 0.1 50.6 50.1 3.6 5.0 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 17.4 17.4 15.9 0.4 54.8 53.4 15.6 17.0 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 17.5 17.3 14.6 0.2 52.4 51.5 15.7 17.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 17.6 17.5 15.2 0.3 53.6 52.4 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 16.7 16.5 14.7 0.3 53.0 52.0 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 17.6 17.4 14.0 0.3 53.2 52.2 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 17.6 17.6 15.8 0.5 55.0 53.5 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 17.8 18.3 16.1 1.0 62.2 58.7 16.2 17.4 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 17.9 17.9 14.8 0.4 54.6 53.1 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 18.2 18.3 18.1 1.9 71.3 66.2 15.3 16.6 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 17.1 16.7 14.2 0.2 51.8 51.0 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 18.5 18.7 18.3 1.8 69.9 65.3 15.6 17.0 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 11.7 11.2 11.2 -0.1 48.7 48.9 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 17.6 17.8 16.9 0.6 57.2 55.4 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 18.7 18.6 17.7 1.5 67.6 63.3 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 17.9 18.7 18.1 1.4 66.2 62.5 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 17.4 17.4 15.8 0.5 55.0 53.6 15.5 16.9 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 17.7 18.0 15.8 0.8 59.5 57.2 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 16.8 17.0 14.0 0.6 57.1 55.2 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 17.5 18.1 17.0 1.1 63.0 60.0 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 17.7 17.9 15.3 0.7 58.6 56.0 16.1 17.3 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.4 13.1 0.0 50.2 50.0 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 18.6 18.8 18.2 1.8 70.3 65.6 15.6 17.1 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------