***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.9 17.4 15.8 0.8 64.9 60.2 15.5 16.5 17.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 17.5 17.9 16.2 1.3 74.7 67.6 15.6 16.5 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.4 15.9 0.6 61.4 57.8 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 8.0 9.3 12.5 0.1 51.0 50.2 8.2 9.2 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 15.6 16.7 13.2 -0.3 43.5 44.6 16.0 17.1 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 14.4 15.1 10.9 -0.7 37.8 40.2 14.8 15.9 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 17.2 17.6 16.2 1.3 74.8 67.6 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 3.2 3.8 11.0 -0.9 35.5 38.3 3.7 4.6 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 15.3 16.4 13.9 -0.3 45.3 46.0 15.7 16.6 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 15.3 16.1 12.1 -0.7 38.5 40.7 15.7 16.7 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 15.4 16.3 13.1 -0.5 41.1 42.6 15.8 16.9 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 14.4 15.3 12.2 -0.6 39.9 41.6 14.9 15.9 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 15.5 16.3 12.1 -0.6 39.8 41.6 15.9 16.9 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 15.5 16.4 13.8 -0.3 44.4 45.6 15.8 16.7 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.0 17.2 14.3 0.6 61.1 57.7 15.8 16.6 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 15.8 16.8 12.6 -0.4 42.7 43.7 16.2 17.2 18.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 16.7 17.1 16.1 1.4 75.5 68.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 15.0 15.6 11.6 -0.7 37.6 40.3 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 17.4 17.6 16.2 1.1 71.3 65.3 15.5 16.4 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 9.6 10.1 8.8 -1.0 34.1 37.5 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 15.5 16.7 14.9 0.0 49.3 49.0 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 16.8 17.4 15.7 1.0 67.9 62.8 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.5 16.0 0.8 64.9 60.7 15.8 16.7 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 15.4 16.3 13.7 -0.3 44.0 45.2 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 15.6 16.9 13.9 0.2 54.2 52.5 15.8 16.6 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 14.9 16.0 11.5 -0.2 45.6 45.6 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.2 14.9 0.5 60.6 57.1 15.7 16.7 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 15.7 16.9 13.1 0.1 52.3 51.1 15.9 16.8 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 9.6 10.2 10.6 -0.9 35.6 38.7 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 17.4 17.7 16.2 1.2 72.4 65.9 15.5 16.4 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------