***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.1 4.9 7.8 59.7 44.4 36.1 3.1 6.0 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.5 3.8 6.4 53.8 41.0 32.8 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.1 6.2 8.2 62.4 46.6 38.9 3.5 7.1 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.7 9.9 12.1 73.4 49.5 39.5 5.7 10.0 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.4 12.4 83.0 55.1 46.0 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.8 13.0 16.0 104.2 63.0 51.4 5.5 9.2 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.3 3.7 6.3 54.2 41.9 33.7 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 17.8 18.6 107.7 64.5 54.0 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.4 7.2 12.0 83.3 55.4 46.1 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.7 12.4 17.9 105.5 63.7 53.2 4.0 7.9 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.9 14.1 90.9 58.6 48.5 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.4 14.6 92.8 58.8 48.8 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.3 15.8 95.3 59.8 49.8 5.9 10.1 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.1 14.5 88.1 57.4 49.6 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 3.2 7.3 9.7 64.6 48.0 35.2 3.7 8.0 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.5 14.0 88.2 57.2 47.4 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 2.4 3.2 5.3 48.0 37.4 30.7 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 11.6 19.3 114.0 66.5 56.9 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.9 4.3 6.8 55.8 42.3 33.9 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 10.9 16.8 22.9 128.9 72.2 62.1 4.9 8.8 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.0 7.4 10.3 73.4 51.6 43.2 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.9 5.3 6.2 52.4 40.8 33.6 4.1 7.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.5 7.0 7.9 61.0 45.3 37.2 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.6 13.9 88.9 57.4 49.0 4.3 8.3 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.8 7.6 10.0 67.8 48.4 39.6 4.4 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.9 14.1 91.0 58.1 47.6 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.4 5.4 8.5 62.2 45.9 37.2 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.2 7.2 12.6 78.4 52.5 40.9 3.0 6.5 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 15.0 21.7 20.9 124.5 70.6 61.1 6.7 12.0 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.8 4.4 6.9 56.5 43.2 34.5 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------