***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.4 5.9 10.2 80.9 56.1 42.4 2.4 4.8 8.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.6 6.7 9.8 87.7 58.0 42.0 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.9 7.2 10.8 85.8 57.2 42.8 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.4 9.4 13.4 91.4 59.4 44.6 4.4 7.3 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.0 7.4 13.0 90.2 58.2 44.0 3.0 5.6 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.5 8.1 16.0 104.3 63.4 50.8 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.1 5.3 9.3 83.9 56.2 41.7 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.7 12.0 14.5 97.6 61.2 48.1 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.1 12.9 89.9 58.1 44.2 2.4 4.6 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.1 13.9 92.1 58.8 45.5 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.3 13.6 93.0 59.0 45.7 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.7 7.1 13.4 96.3 60.5 47.3 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.0 7.6 14.8 98.1 61.6 48.7 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.5 7.6 14.7 92.6 58.8 43.8 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.3 7.3 13.8 101.1 64.0 47.4 2.5 4.6 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.2 7.1 14.2 96.4 60.7 47.9 3.2 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.6 6.4 10.2 91.9 59.7 43.2 2.6 4.7 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.7 14.9 95.0 59.5 47.5 2.4 4.3 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.5 6.4 10.4 89.7 58.3 41.8 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.5 16.5 95.4 59.4 47.7 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.5 6.1 12.1 88.7 58.3 43.1 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.9 6.8 10.6 91.2 58.7 43.1 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.4 6.0 11.6 91.9 58.9 42.4 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.1 6.9 13.7 91.9 58.4 45.9 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.4 6.9 12.6 83.1 55.0 41.2 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.6 7.2 14.3 96.5 60.4 47.8 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.6 5.7 11.0 79.2 54.0 41.5 2.7 5.0 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.7 13.8 97.1 61.9 46.7 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.7 15.8 97.0 60.3 48.4 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.1 5.0 9.6 83.5 55.9 41.0 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------