***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 6.2 9.0 9.1 66.3 44.2 37.9 6.3 10.5 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.9 7.3 8.4 67.6 46.2 39.6 5.0 8.0 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 8.1 11.2 9.0 66.8 45.3 38.6 8.1 12.5 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 10.0 15.3 11.8 76.9 49.7 41.5 11.0 15.5 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 8.0 12.9 11.4 77.0 50.4 42.2 8.2 12.7 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 7.4 12.6 14.5 83.5 52.4 43.3 7.9 12.0 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.1 6.3 8.5 68.9 46.2 39.4 3.9 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 16.1 24.9 14.4 87.0 54.1 44.9 16.5 23.2 30.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.9 12.0 11.7 74.8 49.1 41.4 7.5 12.3 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.2 14.8 14.1 80.7 51.2 43.1 9.2 14.4 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 6.6 12.5 11.8 80.0 51.8 42.5 7.0 11.8 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 9.1 14.1 12.2 83.3 53.0 43.1 9.6 13.3 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 9.6 14.8 13.4 81.0 51.0 42.2 9.8 14.4 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.6 12.9 13.6 73.2 48.1 40.9 8.6 13.6 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 5.5 10.3 11.1 76.2 51.3 41.2 5.7 9.9 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 7.3 12.9 12.2 78.8 50.8 41.8 7.6 12.7 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.0 5.9 7.9 63.9 44.0 37.6 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 9.9 15.8 15.4 83.0 52.2 44.5 10.1 15.1 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.8 7.2 8.6 67.4 46.1 39.5 4.9 8.1 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.0 14.4 16.8 88.8 54.6 46.8 9.1 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 7.5 10.8 10.0 70.9 47.3 40.1 7.3 11.5 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.6 6.8 8.7 65.6 45.4 37.7 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 5.7 8.0 8.9 66.5 45.0 38.7 5.6 9.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 8.9 13.7 12.5 73.5 47.6 40.3 9.1 14.5 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 6.0 9.8 10.7 69.5 45.4 38.9 6.2 11.3 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.9 10.5 13.0 82.4 52.9 43.7 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 5.6 9.1 9.9 67.8 44.9 38.3 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 5.8 10.8 12.0 79.2 51.4 42.1 6.4 10.4 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 13.1 20.9 16.2 87.6 54.7 46.3 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.1 6.5 8.8 69.5 47.0 40.1 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------