***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 23.1 25.6 36.8 68.8 31.4 31.4 26.7 38.8 53.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 22.0 24.4 34.1 71.7 32.8 32.6 24.6 35.1 47.3 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 29.3 32.8 38.0 71.9 33.4 32.9 32.4 44.6 58.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 49.0 54.0 49.0 78.6 38.8 37.8 49.8 61.5 74.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 35.9 40.8 48.0 80.2 39.6 38.9 36.4 48.4 62.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 52.2 47.7 60.9 94.2 50.7 48.0 37.9 47.3 57.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 18.0 20.1 33.1 70.2 31.8 32.6 20.9 31.8 45.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 84.6 79.5 61.0 94.8 51.5 47.9 66.2 78.6 91.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 32.7 36.3 47.5 78.5 37.6 37.1 33.5 44.5 56.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 41.1 50.2 58.6 88.3 45.5 43.4 41.8 53.6 66.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 35.7 43.7 50.5 85.0 43.2 42.0 37.0 48.1 60.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 54.5 47.6 52.2 89.6 47.3 44.8 39.6 49.3 59.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 59.9 51.9 57.8 90.0 47.1 45.5 42.8 53.9 66.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 43.8 50.8 57.7 83.9 41.7 39.2 44.6 57.0 70.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 51.9 39.9 47.3 81.6 43.2 40.1 32.6 44.9 58.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 35.8 43.6 52.6 85.9 43.8 43.1 36.4 47.9 60.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 19.8 20.8 32.6 70.0 31.8 32.7 21.6 32.8 46.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 52.4 47.0 64.2 93.2 49.4 46.6 37.1 47.2 58.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 21.3 24.9 36.0 73.3 33.9 33.2 24.1 36.8 52.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 52.9 52.6 72.8 100.1 56.0 51.7 38.3 48.6 59.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 26.9 31.0 42.8 75.4 36.2 35.3 28.8 41.2 55.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 23.9 26.6 36.2 72.8 34.1 34.2 25.9 36.9 49.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 29.3 33.2 39.7 75.8 35.8 34.5 31.6 41.8 53.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 37.4 43.8 53.1 82.8 40.8 39.3 38.4 50.6 64.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 31.9 35.1 44.6 72.5 33.5 33.5 34.8 47.1 60.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 35.7 44.7 54.6 89.6 47.3 45.4 36.5 46.2 57.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 25.6 27.8 39.9 69.6 31.3 31.7 29.2 42.3 57.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 51.5 41.3 50.7 83.6 43.3 41.5 35.0 45.6 57.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 75.6 73.1 68.5 98.6 54.4 50.4 57.1 69.8 83.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 18.7 21.1 34.9 71.3 32.6 32.4 21.3 31.6 44.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------