***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.5 3.1 3.5 -0.8 36.6 39.0 2.8 4.1 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.3 2.7 3.0 -1.1 31.9 34.8 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.6 5.2 3.7 -0.8 36.6 38.9 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 -1.8 -2.0 -0.1 -1.8 22.4 25.3 -1.1 0.2 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 3.6 2.2 1.9 -0.7 38.0 39.8 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 2.6 1.7 -0.8 -0.6 41.8 42.8 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.4 2.9 3.0 -1.1 32.8 35.6 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -2.6 -3.8 -0.8 -0.6 40.7 41.7 -4.5 -3.1 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.5 2.6 1.4 -1.2 30.5 32.7 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 4.5 3.1 -0.1 -0.9 35.9 37.6 2.9 4.1 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 4.3 2.7 1.1 -0.9 35.0 36.9 2.6 3.8 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 2.7 1.8 0.6 -0.5 42.8 43.8 1.1 2.3 3.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 3.7 3.0 0.8 -0.3 44.9 45.8 2.1 3.3 4.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 4.7 3.4 1.5 -1.0 35.0 37.3 3.2 4.3 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 2.2 1.9 0.8 -2.3 15.4 18.0 3.2 4.1 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 4.9 3.5 0.8 -0.8 36.7 38.3 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.5 3.1 2.7 -1.1 32.1 35.0 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 2.1 1.1 -0.4 -0.6 40.9 42.3 0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.3 2.6 2.9 -1.1 31.4 34.2 2.7 3.8 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 -0.5 -0.9 -1.6 -0.1 49.0 49.3 -2.1 -0.8 0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.3 2.6 3.0 -0.9 34.7 36.9 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 3.7 2.1 2.8 -1.2 30.7 33.5 2.3 3.3 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.8 2.2 2.8 -1.1 30.4 33.0 2.4 3.4 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 4.1 2.8 1.5 -0.8 36.9 38.8 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.5 3.0 2.8 -0.9 36.1 38.3 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 3.5 3.5 0.8 0.2 53.1 53.0 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 4.9 3.6 3.4 -0.7 39.0 41.1 3.1 4.5 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 0.7 0.6 0.3 -1.8 23.2 25.7 1.4 2.5 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 1.3 0.3 -1.3 -0.5 42.3 43.3 -0.4 0.9 2.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.7 3.1 3.2 -1.0 32.9 35.7 3.1 4.3 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------