***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.0 7.2 1.1 66.7 61.7 4.6 5.8 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.0 6.3 6.7 0.8 63.3 59.2 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.0 8.3 7.0 0.9 64.9 60.3 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 1.9 2.6 4.4 0.9 64.4 60.5 0.3 1.5 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.0 5.8 4.6 1.0 66.2 61.7 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 5.2 5.1 2.7 1.0 66.5 63.4 2.8 4.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.2 6.5 6.7 0.9 63.8 59.7 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 -0.6 -0.8 2.5 1.0 66.0 62.7 -3.1 -1.9 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.4 4.9 1.0 66.4 61.9 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 6.5 6.4 3.3 1.0 66.2 62.3 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.4 3.9 1.0 67.5 63.2 4.2 5.2 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 5.2 5.2 3.3 1.1 68.3 64.4 2.8 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 6.2 6.3 3.1 1.2 69.7 65.5 3.8 4.9 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.6 4.7 0.8 63.7 59.9 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.7 5.3 0.7 62.6 59.1 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 6.9 7.0 3.6 1.1 68.8 64.2 4.6 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 6.8 6.5 6.6 0.8 63.1 59.2 4.6 5.7 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 4.7 4.5 2.7 1.0 66.6 62.6 2.6 3.6 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.0 6.3 6.7 0.8 63.4 59.3 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 2.1 1.9 0.7 1.2 66.6 63.3 -0.2 0.9 1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.6 6.3 1.0 65.8 61.2 4.2 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.7 6.3 0.8 62.6 58.6 4.0 5.0 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.7 6.0 6.4 0.8 63.6 59.5 4.0 5.1 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 6.3 6.1 4.5 0.9 64.8 60.9 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.7 5.8 1.1 66.0 61.3 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 6.0 6.0 2.8 1.1 69.0 65.0 3.6 4.8 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.3 7.2 6.6 1.1 66.4 61.7 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.9 5.4 4.5 0.8 63.6 60.2 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 3.4 3.2 2.1 1.1 66.2 62.6 0.9 2.1 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.5 6.7 6.8 0.9 64.2 59.8 4.6 5.8 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------