***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.7 7.0 7.4 0.1 52.4 52.0 5.8 6.9 7.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.9 6.2 7.1 0.0 50.5 50.7 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.4 7.4 0.2 53.5 52.7 7.1 8.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.2 2.9 4.8 0.2 52.9 52.7 1.7 2.7 3.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.6 5.0 0.2 53.6 53.4 4.2 5.3 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.4 4.7 3.1 0.3 54.8 54.1 3.6 4.4 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.2 6.4 7.1 0.1 50.9 50.9 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -2.6 -1.1 2.9 0.2 53.2 53.6 -2.4 -1.3 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.8 6.2 5.3 0.2 54.4 53.9 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.8 6.3 3.8 0.2 54.2 54.1 5.0 6.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.1 4.3 0.2 53.8 53.6 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.2 4.6 3.6 0.2 53.9 53.6 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.7 3.3 0.2 54.3 53.7 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.6 5.2 0.2 53.9 53.3 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.9 5.9 0.1 52.6 52.2 5.8 6.7 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.6 3.9 0.3 54.5 53.8 5.2 6.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 5.2 6.5 7.0 0.1 50.9 51.2 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.0 4.3 3.1 0.3 54.9 54.7 3.1 4.1 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.0 6.3 7.1 0.1 51.7 51.5 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.2 53.2 54.4 0.4 1.3 2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.7 6.3 6.6 0.2 54.0 53.3 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.5 5.8 6.7 0.0 50.8 50.9 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 6.4 6.2 7.0 0.2 54.3 53.2 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 6.3 6.1 5.0 0.3 54.6 54.0 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.3 6.0 0.1 52.3 52.0 5.0 6.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.9 5.4 3.0 0.3 54.8 54.3 4.1 5.1 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.8 6.8 0.1 52.4 52.2 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.2 5.0 0.2 53.3 52.8 4.1 5.0 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.4 3.2 2.5 0.3 54.5 54.8 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.3 6.5 7.2 0.1 51.0 50.9 5.4 6.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------