***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 6.4 6.3 6.4 0.6 65.9 61.4 4.8 5.6 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.5 5.8 0.3 57.8 55.2 4.4 5.2 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.7 8.0 6.3 0.5 64.3 60.3 6.6 7.4 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.9 2.0 3.4 0.3 59.2 56.7 0.8 1.6 2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.0 4.2 0.6 67.1 62.8 3.5 4.3 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 4.2 4.2 2.0 0.7 69.4 64.9 2.7 3.4 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.8 5.9 0.4 59.5 56.6 4.7 5.4 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -1.1 -1.3 1.8 0.6 65.0 61.7 -2.8 -2.0 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.5 4.1 0.4 61.3 58.7 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.6 2.6 0.5 63.1 60.2 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 5.6 5.5 3.4 0.5 64.8 61.4 4.3 4.9 5.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 4.4 4.3 2.9 0.7 70.0 65.3 2.8 3.5 4.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.3 2.8 0.8 72.4 67.1 3.8 4.4 5.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.0 4.0 0.4 60.7 57.4 5.0 5.6 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.7 4.3 0.1 51.8 51.4 5.1 5.6 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 6.3 6.3 3.1 0.7 68.6 64.2 4.8 5.5 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.7 5.6 0.3 57.4 55.2 4.8 5.5 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 3.6 3.5 2.1 0.7 66.6 62.6 2.4 3.0 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.5 5.8 0.3 57.9 55.4 4.4 5.2 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.9 70.8 66.0 -0.2 0.4 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 6.0 5.7 5.6 0.5 64.6 60.8 4.4 5.1 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.9 5.5 0.2 55.5 53.5 4.1 4.7 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.2 5.6 0.3 58.7 56.0 4.1 4.8 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 5.6 5.4 3.9 0.5 62.6 59.4 4.3 5.0 5.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 6.1 5.9 5.3 0.7 66.6 62.0 4.5 5.2 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 5.1 5.4 2.6 1.0 77.9 71.2 3.6 4.3 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 6.7 6.7 6.0 0.7 67.8 62.9 4.9 5.8 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.1 4.1 3.7 0.3 58.2 56.1 3.2 3.8 4.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 3.0 2.8 1.4 0.6 65.9 62.1 1.3 2.1 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.0 6.0 0.4 60.0 56.8 4.8 5.6 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------