***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 19.4 20.1 17.3 2.4 77.3 68.1 15.9 17.5 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 19.2 19.4 16.7 1.8 71.2 63.9 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 19.8 20.6 17.8 2.5 78.2 68.7 16.4 17.9 19.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 12.5 13.6 15.0 2.8 80.0 71.1 8.4 10.2 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 20.4 21.7 16.5 3.0 82.1 72.1 16.6 18.3 19.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 19.1 21.6 15.7 4.1 89.5 78.4 14.9 16.7 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 18.9 19.0 16.6 1.7 70.7 63.6 16.1 17.4 18.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 7.0 8.2 15.0 3.1 81.9 71.8 3.7 5.2 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 19.9 21.1 17.1 2.9 81.4 71.5 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 20.0 21.3 16.0 3.2 82.5 72.3 16.2 17.9 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 20.1 21.6 16.9 3.3 83.7 73.4 16.2 17.9 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 19.0 20.4 15.8 3.1 82.9 72.5 15.2 16.9 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 19.9 22.0 16.5 3.5 86.8 75.8 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 19.7 20.4 16.9 2.6 77.0 67.8 16.3 17.8 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 19.5 20.2 16.2 2.4 77.3 69.7 16.2 17.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 20.4 22.3 16.5 3.4 85.4 74.9 16.5 18.2 19.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 18.1 18.0 16.2 1.5 67.7 61.7 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 19.3 20.5 15.4 3.1 80.7 70.5 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 19.2 19.5 17.1 2.0 73.4 65.4 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 13.6 14.4 12.7 2.7 78.2 68.5 10.3 11.8 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 19.9 21.0 17.8 2.8 80.5 70.7 16.4 18.0 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 19.0 18.9 16.4 1.6 68.5 62.4 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 19.5 20.1 17.6 2.3 76.4 67.4 16.3 17.8 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 19.7 20.7 17.1 2.9 79.8 69.8 16.2 17.8 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 19.6 20.5 16.4 2.7 79.6 70.1 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 19.0 21.1 15.2 3.5 87.4 76.6 15.1 16.7 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 19.6 20.4 16.8 2.4 77.9 68.6 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 20.0 21.1 15.7 2.8 80.3 71.6 16.2 17.8 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 13.9 14.8 14.5 2.8 78.4 68.7 10.5 12.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 19.2 19.5 17.0 2.0 73.5 65.4 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------