***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.7 16.4 0.7 58.7 55.5 14.6 16.0 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 16.6 16.7 16.1 0.7 58.1 55.5 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.8 17.0 16.8 0.8 59.6 56.2 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.9 10.1 14.4 0.7 58.2 55.0 7.9 9.4 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.7 15.2 0.9 60.5 56.9 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.8 17.4 13.7 1.4 64.7 60.1 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.5 16.1 0.6 57.8 55.3 14.5 15.9 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.3 5.9 14.0 1.3 63.6 59.5 3.3 4.8 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.2 15.7 1.0 60.8 57.2 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.5 14.7 1.2 62.8 58.8 15.1 16.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.9 15.2 1.2 62.8 58.8 15.4 16.8 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.6 17.2 14.9 1.3 64.0 59.7 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.7 18.3 14.3 1.4 64.6 60.3 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.7 17.0 15.6 1.0 61.2 57.6 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.2 14.9 0.5 56.1 53.6 15.6 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 17.8 18.4 14.9 1.3 63.7 59.4 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 13.7 16.0 15.9 0.6 57.2 55.0 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.5 17.0 14.5 1.3 63.3 59.1 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.6 16.4 0.8 59.2 56.2 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.2 11.7 1.2 62.4 58.6 9.6 11.1 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.2 16.3 0.9 59.6 56.2 15.1 16.4 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 14.2 16.6 16.0 0.6 57.8 55.2 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.7 17.0 16.8 0.9 60.9 57.2 14.6 16.1 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.9 15.7 1.1 61.9 58.0 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 17.0 17.1 14.9 0.7 58.3 55.1 15.2 16.5 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.7 14.0 1.3 64.7 60.4 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.9 17.1 15.8 0.8 59.1 55.8 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.6 14.6 0.8 58.5 55.3 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.8 13.5 1.2 62.9 58.9 9.2 10.7 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.6 16.3 0.7 58.3 55.6 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------