***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 16.2 17.8 16.7 -0.1 49.2 47.8 16.5 17.9 19.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 15.7 17.4 16.3 -0.2 47.0 47.0 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 15.9 17.8 17.1 0.1 50.8 49.3 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 8.9 10.5 14.8 0.1 50.8 48.5 9.2 10.5 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 16.1 17.9 15.5 0.2 52.0 49.8 16.4 17.7 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.6 13.6 0.2 52.5 50.3 15.2 16.4 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 15.5 17.1 16.3 -0.3 46.3 46.4 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 3.7 5.6 14.0 0.3 53.0 51.3 4.1 5.4 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 15.6 17.5 15.9 0.2 52.4 50.2 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 15.5 17.5 14.8 0.3 53.2 51.1 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 15.7 17.7 15.4 0.3 53.0 50.9 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 14.8 16.8 15.0 0.3 53.4 51.3 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 15.7 17.7 14.3 0.3 53.3 51.0 16.1 17.5 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 15.6 17.6 15.7 0.2 51.9 50.7 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 16.2 17.7 15.4 0.0 49.8 47.6 16.5 17.7 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 16.1 18.1 15.0 0.3 53.1 50.9 16.5 17.9 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 15.1 16.7 16.1 -0.3 46.1 46.4 15.6 17.0 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 15.0 17.1 14.5 0.3 53.2 51.4 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 15.5 17.3 16.6 -0.1 48.8 48.4 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 9.8 11.7 11.7 0.1 50.9 50.3 10.2 11.6 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 15.8 17.6 16.6 0.1 51.8 49.6 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 15.7 17.5 16.2 -0.2 47.6 47.5 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 15.9 17.9 16.9 0.1 51.7 50.3 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 15.4 17.4 15.8 0.2 52.8 51.0 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 16.0 17.6 15.3 0.0 50.0 47.9 16.2 17.6 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 15.3 17.1 14.1 0.3 54.3 51.5 15.6 16.8 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 15.6 17.3 16.0 -0.1 49.0 47.6 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 16.2 17.8 15.1 0.1 51.3 48.9 16.5 17.7 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 9.7 11.9 13.5 0.3 52.8 51.3 10.3 11.6 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 15.5 17.2 16.4 -0.2 47.5 47.2 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------