***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 16.9 17.3 15.9 0.6 62.7 58.7 15.6 16.6 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 16.9 17.0 15.6 0.4 57.9 55.2 15.7 16.6 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.2 17.7 16.4 0.8 65.8 61.3 15.9 16.9 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.7 10.1 13.3 0.6 61.2 57.8 8.3 9.4 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 18.2 18.2 14.8 1.0 68.4 63.5 16.1 17.1 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 17.2 17.7 13.3 1.5 76.8 69.8 14.9 16.0 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.8 15.4 0.3 56.8 54.2 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 5.9 5.9 13.3 1.1 69.9 64.9 3.8 4.7 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 17.8 17.8 15.5 1.0 69.3 64.3 15.7 16.7 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 17.9 18.0 14.2 1.2 70.7 65.6 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 18.0 18.3 15.0 1.2 71.5 66.0 15.9 16.9 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 17.3 17.4 14.2 1.1 71.6 65.9 15.0 16.0 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 18.2 18.6 14.3 1.3 74.6 68.1 16.0 17.0 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 17.8 17.8 15.3 0.9 67.1 62.6 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 17.0 17.1 14.4 0.3 56.7 54.3 15.9 16.8 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 18.5 18.7 14.5 1.2 72.1 66.4 16.3 17.3 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.1 15.2 0.3 55.2 52.9 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 17.4 17.5 13.7 1.1 69.6 64.8 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 16.8 17.1 15.9 0.6 61.1 57.7 15.6 16.5 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 12.2 12.0 11.0 0.8 65.2 61.4 10.1 11.1 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 17.9 17.9 16.1 0.9 67.6 62.8 15.9 16.8 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 16.9 17.0 15.4 0.4 57.4 54.7 15.7 16.6 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 17.1 17.7 16.2 0.8 65.9 61.5 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 17.7 17.7 15.4 1.1 69.1 64.3 15.7 16.6 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 17.0 17.5 14.7 0.7 63.7 59.3 15.9 16.8 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 17.6 17.9 13.4 1.3 75.7 68.6 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 17.0 17.4 15.3 0.6 62.6 58.5 15.8 16.7 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 17.2 17.5 13.9 0.6 62.0 58.5 16.0 16.9 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 12.2 12.1 12.8 1.0 67.6 63.3 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.8 17.0 15.7 0.5 59.7 56.6 15.6 16.5 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------