***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 8.2 13.2 16.4 129.9 72.7 59.9 3.2 6.3 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 11.3 13.3 15.9 136.7 74.4 62.7 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.1 14.6 15.0 118.2 69.5 56.6 3.7 7.4 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.1 15.8 18.2 108.9 66.3 49.3 5.0 9.4 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.7 11.2 15.9 110.8 66.8 51.2 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 4.6 12.1 16.3 100.9 61.9 46.1 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 10.8 11.7 14.6 128.0 72.2 60.9 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.4 17.5 16.9 103.4 63.4 49.8 6.1 11.5 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.5 12.1 16.0 114.9 68.4 52.9 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.2 13.6 17.0 106.9 65.0 50.6 3.9 8.0 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.5 13.2 16.0 108.9 66.1 50.8 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.5 12.7 15.7 105.7 64.6 50.0 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 5.2 14.6 17.0 103.9 64.0 47.7 5.3 9.5 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.6 18.3 17.4 108.9 66.5 54.0 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 4.1 16.9 17.0 108.3 67.1 49.3 3.5 8.5 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.0 12.9 16.8 109.4 66.2 49.9 3.6 7.4 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.0 11.8 13.3 118.0 69.3 58.9 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 11.8 18.2 112.5 67.1 52.1 3.4 6.7 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.8 15.4 16.3 136.1 74.3 61.8 3.0 6.3 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.6 15.7 21.0 122.8 70.2 54.9 5.3 9.1 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.4 13.2 15.7 116.2 68.9 54.8 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 12.3 13.2 15.3 129.8 72.7 61.4 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.5 15.2 15.9 124.5 71.3 58.2 4.6 8.2 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.8 13.9 15.7 106.7 65.9 53.0 3.7 7.8 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.6 14.9 17.4 121.9 70.4 57.0 4.7 8.2 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.6 11.2 16.0 102.6 63.4 47.8 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 9.2 15.1 16.9 129.2 72.6 60.1 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.6 13.0 17.5 107.9 66.0 47.8 3.5 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.4 19.8 18.9 116.7 68.3 53.1 5.7 10.9 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 11.8 13.4 15.9 133.1 73.6 61.5 3.2 6.3 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------