***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 13.2 51.0 62.4 516.0 99.6 94.5 3.2 5.7 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 12.7 49.6 59.5 558.1 99.6 95.4 3.0 5.5 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 13.9 58.8 61.0 515.3 99.6 94.4 2.8 5.4 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 16.8 71.9 89.0 701.6 99.9 97.9 4.8 8.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 14.9 61.2 69.8 555.7 99.8 96.2 3.8 6.7 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 11.3 50.7 79.3 564.2 99.9 97.1 3.1 5.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 11.2 45.6 55.7 533.4 99.5 95.6 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 21.8 94.4 75.7 544.8 99.8 96.5 5.5 9.6 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 11.9 52.4 68.5 533.4 99.8 95.1 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 13.2 49.9 73.9 531.5 99.8 95.6 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 10.4 40.9 73.5 544.3 99.9 96.6 3.2 5.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 12.6 68.1 75.6 571.8 99.9 96.8 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 11.5 54.0 82.4 586.0 99.9 96.4 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 13.3 39.6 71.1 450.4 99.1 94.2 4.2 6.8 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 8.1 36.7 91.1 775.9 100.0 98.8 2.4 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 11.2 48.0 78.7 588.3 99.9 96.9 3.2 5.4 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 10.0 28.8 45.3 431.7 98.4 91.7 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 10.4 40.3 75.4 492.7 99.6 94.1 2.7 4.7 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 11.7 44.2 63.5 569.1 99.7 95.2 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 12.8 48.1 82.4 485.4 99.7 95.2 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 12.0 53.1 64.9 537.7 99.7 94.7 2.5 4.9 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 10.4 29.8 53.2 472.0 98.7 92.3 3.3 5.4 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 10.8 39.5 65.5 533.5 99.6 94.5 3.1 5.2 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 12.6 45.7 68.0 466.8 99.4 93.9 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 14.6 52.9 71.4 537.9 99.7 94.7 4.2 7.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 12.1 62.5 80.5 558.2 99.9 96.6 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 12.0 45.3 65.9 515.2 99.6 94.5 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 10.1 52.7 91.4 746.1 100.0 98.4 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 17.6 62.0 76.9 464.1 99.6 94.5 4.9 8.4 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 9.9 39.0 61.6 565.6 99.7 95.6 2.4 4.3 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------