***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 22.3 53.0 41.1 317.9 96.3 84.7 5.5 10.1 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 19.7 48.7 37.5 330.3 96.6 83.8 5.2 9.3 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 21.5 51.1 39.4 318.1 96.5 84.3 6.3 10.8 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 31.7 65.0 53.2 355.5 97.3 84.6 13.0 18.9 25.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 26.2 53.4 45.7 316.2 96.1 83.8 9.4 14.5 20.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 24.0 50.3 51.3 298.4 96.4 83.4 8.5 13.3 19.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 18.5 43.3 36.3 315.0 96.2 83.3 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 34.2 62.7 48.6 312.7 96.5 85.2 15.7 21.8 28.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 21.7 46.5 44.4 295.8 95.6 82.9 6.7 11.2 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 27.0 53.5 48.1 294.8 95.7 84.2 9.7 14.9 21.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 25.8 55.3 45.6 323.1 96.2 84.5 8.6 13.8 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 24.6 57.1 45.6 322.7 96.6 84.9 7.5 12.5 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 26.3 60.3 49.8 311.9 96.5 84.6 8.2 13.7 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 27.0 58.2 47.6 294.4 95.8 83.6 8.7 14.4 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 22.4 63.4 53.3 383.5 97.8 84.8 5.4 10.1 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 25.1 54.6 47.7 318.6 96.4 84.1 8.3 13.4 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 18.3 45.2 34.0 303.3 95.2 82.0 3.7 7.6 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 22.9 41.7 49.3 285.8 95.7 84.0 9.6 13.8 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 23.0 63.0 39.1 336.4 97.1 84.4 5.6 10.4 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 21.1 45.2 57.0 307.8 96.9 84.3 7.9 12.0 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 21.2 43.6 42.7 314.2 96.0 83.5 7.2 11.4 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 21.0 51.0 36.7 306.9 95.4 82.2 4.5 8.9 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 22.1 57.0 40.8 332.1 97.1 84.8 6.2 10.8 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 22.0 47.3 44.5 294.1 95.9 83.7 7.0 11.5 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 23.1 49.9 48.1 326.5 96.7 84.4 7.6 12.2 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 23.1 50.2 49.5 326.0 96.9 83.4 8.7 13.3 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 25.7 58.5 44.1 317.4 96.3 84.7 7.1 12.3 19.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 25.0 60.3 53.3 355.4 97.3 84.3 7.6 12.7 19.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 32.6 63.9 51.0 290.0 96.0 84.2 12.8 19.1 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 18.2 46.1 38.3 327.7 96.7 84.6 4.5 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------