***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.1 13.4 15.7 101.1 62.4 50.8 4.8 9.1 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.5 11.3 14.1 103.6 63.5 51.2 4.2 7.6 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.7 17.2 15.7 104.2 63.8 50.4 6.8 11.6 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 11.5 19.4 15.9 96.8 60.6 49.0 11.7 16.2 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 8.4 18.1 16.2 101.5 63.0 50.1 8.2 13.2 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.6 14.0 17.0 95.1 59.3 50.6 7.4 11.4 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.0 11.9 14.5 108.5 65.3 52.3 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 26.3 27.0 17.7 97.6 60.7 50.8 16.7 22.8 29.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 7.7 17.9 17.4 104.5 64.0 50.0 7.5 12.5 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.3 19.4 19.6 104.6 63.7 51.5 8.0 13.5 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.9 17.2 15.6 100.0 62.4 51.1 8.0 12.7 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.9 15.2 14.9 93.6 59.3 50.0 7.9 12.3 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 17.6 18.7 16.9 96.8 60.4 50.9 9.9 15.0 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.9 19.1 20.9 109.0 65.6 52.5 6.9 12.2 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 6.8 15.1 15.0 96.8 61.6 48.7 6.6 11.0 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.6 16.4 15.6 96.9 60.7 50.3 7.9 12.7 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.9 11.7 14.2 108.1 65.0 50.8 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 9.4 20.2 21.5 108.9 65.3 52.5 9.2 14.3 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.5 12.1 14.5 102.8 63.3 51.4 4.4 8.0 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.1 16.8 21.0 100.4 61.1 50.9 9.1 13.4 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.0 16.2 16.3 104.3 64.0 50.3 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.2 11.6 14.8 104.5 63.6 50.6 4.2 7.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.7 12.9 15.7 104.5 64.0 51.7 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 8.7 22.3 19.8 110.8 66.2 52.0 8.7 14.6 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 5.8 15.2 17.2 99.6 61.6 50.8 5.8 10.7 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.6 13.7 16.1 99.1 61.4 52.4 5.7 10.0 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.5 12.7 16.5 100.3 61.7 51.2 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 7.1 14.0 15.1 93.4 59.6 47.7 6.8 11.0 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.6 23.7 21.5 108.0 64.7 52.9 11.3 17.2 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.0 11.0 14.8 105.0 64.2 52.0 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------