***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.7 2.7 3.6 -1.1 30.2 33.1 2.9 4.0 5.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.3 3.0 3.5 -0.8 34.5 37.2 2.9 3.9 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.7 5.2 4.1 -0.8 34.7 37.3 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 0.8 -0.6 1.5 -0.6 38.0 40.1 -1.0 0.3 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 3.6 2.0 2.4 -0.7 35.8 38.5 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 2.6 1.9 0.0 -0.3 44.2 45.2 1.2 2.3 3.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.4 3.1 3.5 -0.9 34.5 37.2 3.1 4.1 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 -2.7 -3.0 0.3 0.1 51.1 51.6 -4.4 -3.1 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.1 2.4 -0.6 36.9 39.2 2.8 4.0 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 4.4 3.8 1.1 -0.2 45.4 46.6 2.9 4.1 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 4.2 3.5 2.3 -0.2 45.0 46.1 2.6 3.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 2.6 1.9 1.2 -0.3 44.4 45.8 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 3.6 2.4 1.0 -0.7 37.0 38.7 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 4.8 3.7 2.1 -0.6 36.8 38.8 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.7 3.8 2.9 -0.4 41.4 42.7 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 4.8 3.7 1.5 -0.5 39.8 41.4 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 4.5 3.6 3.5 -0.7 37.5 40.0 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.0 49.0 49.6 0.7 1.8 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.0 3.6 -0.8 35.1 37.7 2.9 3.9 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 -0.4 -0.5 -0.9 0.2 53.0 53.2 -2.0 -0.8 0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.3 2.6 3.5 -0.8 34.3 36.7 2.6 3.8 4.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.8 2.8 3.7 -0.6 38.4 40.5 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.4 2.7 3.5 -0.7 35.4 38.1 2.5 3.5 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 4.1 3.2 2.4 -0.4 41.4 42.9 2.7 3.7 4.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.7 2.7 2.9 -1.1 29.9 33.2 2.9 4.1 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 3.6 2.6 0.4 -0.6 39.4 41.2 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.9 2.9 3.1 -1.2 29.2 32.4 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 2.9 1.9 2.1 -0.4 41.1 42.5 1.4 2.5 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 1.3 1.2 -0.1 0.2 53.2 53.3 -0.4 0.9 2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.8 3.4 3.8 -0.8 34.7 37.4 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------