***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.8 5.4 5.8 -0.2 44.0 45.9 4.9 5.7 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.4 5.2 5.7 -0.1 48.2 48.9 4.5 5.3 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.6 7.4 6.0 0.0 48.6 49.5 6.7 7.5 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.0 1.8 3.5 0.1 51.7 51.6 0.9 1.7 2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.3 3.8 0.0 48.7 49.6 3.6 4.3 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.7 1.8 0.1 54.4 53.1 2.8 3.5 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.4 5.7 -0.1 47.9 48.7 4.8 5.5 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -1.6 -1.6 1.7 0.2 56.7 55.4 -2.8 -1.9 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.4 5.2 4.0 0.0 50.5 51.1 4.5 5.2 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.4 2.5 0.1 54.3 53.7 4.6 5.2 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.2 5.2 3.3 0.1 54.6 54.1 4.3 5.0 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.7 2.5 0.1 53.6 53.1 2.9 3.6 4.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.5 2.2 0.0 49.4 49.7 3.9 4.5 5.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.8 4.0 0.1 52.7 53.0 5.1 5.7 6.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.9 4.7 0.2 55.5 54.2 5.2 5.8 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.6 2.8 0.0 51.5 51.6 4.9 5.6 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.6 5.6 0.0 50.6 50.7 4.9 5.6 6.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.3 3.3 2.0 0.2 55.9 55.0 2.5 3.1 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.4 5.3 5.7 0.0 49.6 50.0 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.2 56.3 54.9 -0.2 0.5 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.1 5.3 -0.1 48.3 49.3 4.4 5.2 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.0 5.6 0.1 53.1 52.6 4.2 4.8 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.1 5.0 5.6 0.1 51.8 51.8 4.2 4.9 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.2 3.9 0.1 53.8 53.6 4.4 5.0 5.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.4 5.1 4.7 -0.2 44.4 46.2 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.5 1.9 0.1 54.7 53.7 3.7 4.4 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.8 5.5 5.3 -0.2 42.9 45.0 5.0 5.8 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.1 3.9 0.1 54.0 53.3 3.3 3.9 4.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.5 2.5 1.3 0.2 57.5 55.9 1.4 2.2 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.8 5.6 5.8 -0.1 47.9 48.7 4.9 5.7 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------