***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.6 15.2 0.9 64.7 62.2 13.4 15.1 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 17.2 17.1 15.5 1.2 68.8 65.9 13.9 15.4 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.8 15.3 0.8 61.8 60.0 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.1 8.8 11.9 0.9 62.3 60.2 5.9 7.6 9.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.7 13.6 0.6 60.1 58.6 14.0 15.7 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 15.3 14.9 11.1 0.2 52.5 52.3 13.1 14.7 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 16.9 16.8 15.3 1.2 69.1 65.8 13.8 15.2 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.3 11.7 0.5 57.9 56.6 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.4 14.6 0.7 60.6 59.1 13.7 15.4 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.2 12.8 0.5 57.2 56.3 13.9 15.5 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.3 13.9 0.4 56.8 55.8 13.9 15.6 17.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.6 12.6 0.5 58.0 56.5 13.1 14.8 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.2 13.2 0.2 53.2 53.0 14.2 15.8 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.5 17.0 14.8 0.8 61.2 59.8 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.7 16.3 14.2 0.9 62.4 60.3 13.6 15.2 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.6 13.1 0.3 55.5 54.6 14.3 16.1 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 16.2 16.3 15.2 1.3 71.1 67.7 13.2 14.6 15.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.1 12.2 0.6 58.2 57.2 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 17.1 16.9 15.5 1.1 67.7 65.0 13.9 15.4 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 11.9 11.2 10.1 0.7 61.7 59.5 8.6 10.2 11.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.6 15.3 0.7 60.3 58.7 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 17.3 17.4 15.5 1.4 71.2 68.1 13.9 15.4 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 17.5 17.3 15.6 1.1 66.2 63.9 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.6 14.4 0.6 58.6 57.6 14.1 15.8 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.4 14.0 0.8 62.1 60.2 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 17.0 16.2 11.6 0.6 60.2 58.0 13.7 15.3 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.8 14.7 0.8 63.9 61.5 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.2 12.8 0.7 59.7 58.1 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.7 11.1 11.7 0.6 59.8 58.3 8.4 10.1 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 17.0 16.9 15.4 1.1 67.4 64.6 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------