***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.5 16.3 0.9 61.2 58.5 15.7 17.4 19.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 18.2 18.6 16.1 0.9 61.5 58.4 16.1 17.6 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.5 18.8 16.4 0.7 59.3 57.0 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.1 11.6 13.6 0.8 60.2 57.9 8.5 10.4 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 19.0 19.1 14.7 0.6 57.7 55.8 16.5 18.3 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.5 12.6 0.5 56.1 54.7 14.9 16.8 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 17.9 18.4 16.1 0.9 62.0 58.8 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.0 12.9 0.6 57.5 55.7 3.7 5.3 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 18.5 18.7 15.4 0.7 58.2 56.0 16.1 17.8 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 18.6 18.6 13.8 0.6 56.9 55.3 16.1 17.9 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 18.7 18.8 14.8 0.6 57.4 55.8 16.1 18.0 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.9 13.9 0.7 58.6 56.5 15.2 17.0 18.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.5 13.9 0.5 56.4 55.1 16.0 17.8 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.4 18.5 15.2 0.6 57.1 55.2 16.1 17.8 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 18.4 19.1 15.4 1.0 63.3 60.7 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 19.1 19.1 14.2 0.6 57.3 55.7 16.5 18.3 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 17.2 17.6 15.8 0.9 61.3 57.9 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.1 13.3 0.6 56.3 54.7 15.7 17.5 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 18.0 18.5 16.2 0.9 61.0 58.1 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.6 11.0 0.6 57.5 55.9 10.2 11.9 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 18.6 18.8 16.1 0.7 58.3 56.2 16.3 18.0 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 17.9 18.4 15.9 0.8 61.1 57.7 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.7 16.3 0.8 60.6 57.7 16.2 17.7 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.3 15.1 0.6 56.6 54.8 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 18.4 18.7 15.0 0.8 59.6 57.5 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 17.6 18.3 13.1 1.0 62.7 59.4 15.2 16.9 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 18.4 18.8 15.6 0.8 60.4 57.9 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 18.7 19.1 14.3 0.8 60.3 58.1 16.3 18.1 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.7 12.5 0.5 56.2 54.7 10.4 12.1 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.6 16.3 0.9 61.6 58.6 16.0 17.5 19.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------